La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 25

Feb 20, 2022 at 8pm UK

San Mames

Athletic Bilbao
4 - 0
Real Sociedad

Vivian (68'), Sancet (72'), Williams (80'), Muniain (89')
Garcia (5'), Martinez (37'), Garcia (55'), Berenguer (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Silva (30')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Real Sociedad

With two rivals and two of the league's strongest defences squaring off in a crucial battle, we see this being a cagey affair and predict a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome. Both have the ability to neutralise one another's attacking threats with organised structures, and we cannot quite pick a winner for this edition of the Basque Derby as a result. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Sociedad
35.41%	26.72%	37.87%

Both teams to score 51.79%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.75%

53.24%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.2%

74.8%

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.24%

28.75%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.4%

64.59%

Real Sociedad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.7%

27.3%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.25%

62.74%

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 35.41%

Real Sociedad 37.87%

Draw 26.71%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Sociedad
1-0 @ 9.78% 2-1 @ 7.92% 2-0 @ 6.1% 3-1 @ 3.29% 3-0 @ 2.53% 3-2 @ 2.14% 4-1 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.63% Total : 35.41%	1-1 @ 12.7% 0-0 @ 7.85% 2-2 @ 5.14% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.71%	0-1 @ 10.19% 1-2 @ 8.25% 0-2 @ 6.62% 1-3 @ 3.57% 0-3 @ 2.86% 2-3 @ 2.22% 1-4 @ 1.16% 0-4 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.07% Total : 37.87%