The rubber match between the Los Angeles Galaxy and Los Angeles FC takes place on Sunday on the Galaxy's home ground of Dignity Health Tennis Center in a game with plenty at stake.
Both sides are currently riding three-game losing streaks coming into this contest, with the Galaxy having dropped to sixth in the Western Conference with the Black-and-Gold sitting ninth.
Match preview
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Heading into the third and final edition of El Trafico this year, Greg Vanney has seen his side quickly fall down the standings after being comfortably positioned in the top four through much of the campaign.
Since starting the month of August by winning their opening three fixtures, things have taken a turn for the worse, as they are winless in their last eight contests and are dangerously close to missing the playoffs for a second consecutive year, currently only a point ahead of the eighth-place Vancouver Whitecaps.
On their recent three-game road trip, we got a first-hand look at the weakness' this team possesses, especially at the back where they conceded seven times on 12 shots on target.
Losing Chicharito to an injury earlier this season showed us how poor they are in the final third without him, and it is clear that their success depends heavily on his health, as he leads the team with 12 goals this year, with their next highest scorer being Rayan Raveloson at five.
LA showed a few more signs of life in their midweek encounter with Real Salt Lake, with 61% possession, but a mix-up between their last two defenders deep into injury time allowed Anderson Julio to sneak past them with a brilliant first touch and an even better volley outside the 18-yard box to leave the Galaxy empty-handed.
Former striker Landon Donovan will be honoured with a statue unveiling at this game, so you know it will be emotional, and the Galaxy will want to improve their defensive responsibilities versus the Black-and-Gold, allowing 16 shots on target in their two previous encounters against them.
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Things may be bad for the Galaxy right now, but it does not seem quite as rough when you compare it to their LA rivals.
With three consecutive defeats and only three wins in 14 successive matches, Bob Bradley and his side are really on the hot seat, five points back of a playoff position.
In their last two matches, they have been as sloppy defensively as one can be, allowing four combined goals versus the San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers on only four shots on target.
Unfortunately, narrow defeats in football get you nothing, and the Black-and-Gold have been on the wrong side of several one-goal games, losing 10 times this year by that margin.
Bradley has said that they are not giving up, but their season has turned into a snowball effect, rolling down the hill and getting bigger and bigger, and they will have to try to prevent that snowball from rolling down the hill soon.
Four of their final seven games this year are away from home, and that does not bode well for them as they have lost six of their last seven road matches, with five of those defeats being by a single goal.
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Team News
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It has been a total of five games since someone besides Chicharito found the back of the net for the Galaxy, with their lone goal on September 11 versus the Colorado Rapids coming courtesy of Samuel Grandsir.
Derrick Williams will be a question mark with an undisclosed injury, while Jonathan dos Santos notched the winner in the first meeting between these sides back in May and Dejan Joveljic notched a brace in the return match with Kevin Cabral scoring his fourth of the season in that game.
Vanney made four changes to the starting 11 on Wednesday against Austin, with Niko Hamalainen and Nick DePuy replacing Jorge Villafana and Daniel Steres on defence, Grandsir was inserted over Cabral and Efrain Alvarez got the start over Victor Vazquez.
Goalkeeper Jamal Blackman made his debut for LAFC in midweek, conceding on the only two shots that he faced, while Danny Musovski notched his third goal of the year, moving ahead of Eduard Atuesta in that category and two back of Carlos Vela and Jose Cifuentes.
Brian Rodriguez has a left hamstring injury, Kwadwo Opoku is out with a left knee injury, Eddie Segura is not fully recovered from a right knee problem, Julian Gaines is out with a pelvic stress fracture, Tristan Blackmon continues to suffer from a left abductor strain and Erik Duenas is nursing a left knee injury.
Bradley inserted several new players into the starting lineup versus the Timbers, with Blackman taking the place of Tomas Romero in goal, Sebastien Ibeagha started instead of Daniel Crisostomo, Atuesta replaced Kim Moon-hwan and Michee Ngalina took the spot of Musovski.
Los Angeles Galaxy possible starting lineup:
Bond; Fisher, Steres, Coulibaly, Araujo; Vazquez, Dos Santos; Cabral, Lletget, Zubak; Chicharito
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Romero; Fall, Murillo, Ibeagha, Harvey; Blessing, Atuesta; Musovski, Cifuentes, Edwards; Arango
We say: Los Angeles Galaxy 2-2 Los Angeles FC
Neither side have been particularly tough defensively, with the Black-and-Gold and the Galaxy conceding 40 and 44 goals, respectively this season.
These two struggling teams have been extremely sloppy in their own third of the field, so we could see a lot of goals in this one but not necessarily any memorable ones.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 37.6%. A win for Los Angeles FC had a probability of 37.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.08%) and 2-0 (5.82%). The likeliest Los Angeles FC win was 1-2 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
