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Kilmarnock logo
Scottish Cup | Fourth Round
Apr 17, 2021 at 11.45am UK
BBSP Stadium Rugby Park
Montrose

Kilmarnock
3 - 1
Montrose

Lafferty (6'), Pinnock (24'), Kiltie (61')
Broadfoot (63')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ballantyne (82')
Ballantyne (67'), Masson (75'), Quinn (86'), Campbell (90'), Ballantyne (90+2'), Callaghan (90+3')

Preview: Kilmarnock vs. Montrose - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Scottish Cup clash between Kilmarnock and Montrose, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Scottish Premiership side Kilmarnock host third-tier Montrose at Rugby Park in the fourth round of the Scottish Cup on Saturday afternoon.

Killie saw off Stenhousemuir 4-0 in the last round, while Montrose have defeated Nairn County and Fraserburgh to reach this stage.


Match preview

General view of Rugby Park, home to Kilmarnock, from 2011© Reuters

With Celtic and Rangers set to face off in one of the other fourth-round ties, Scottish Premiership clubs will consider this a good opportunity to win some silverware.

There is a long way to go before that, of course, with the competition still at a relatively early stage.

Kilmarnock are one of 10 top-tier clubs still in the hunt for the cup, while six sides from the Championship, League One and League Two complete the last-16 setup.

Killie have won the trophy on three previous occasions, though not since 1997, which was also the last time they reached the final.

Montrose have never previously gone all the way, but they will see this as a big chance to advance through to the quarter-finals.

Realistically, though, the Gable Endies' aim for the remainder of the season is to earn promotion from Scottish League One.

Stewart Petrie's men are fifth, which would be enough for a playoff spot, but they are out of form and are level on points with sixth-placed East Fife.

A 5-0 loss against Patrick Thistle on Thursday makes it one win in seven league games for Montrose, though that is one of only two losses in their last 13 in all competitions.

Kilmarnock have themselves struggled for victories in the league, winning just one of their last 12 in a run that includes nine losses.

Tommy Wright's side drew 2-2 with Ross County last time out and are only kept off the bottom of the table by Hamilton Academical, who are two points worse off.

This Scottish Cup tie could be a welcome distraction for the hosts, then, though defeat to lower-league opposition and a disappointing campaign will become a whole lot worse.

Kilmarnock Scottish Cup form:
  • W

Kilmarnock form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

Montrose Scottish Cup form:
  • W
  • W

Montrose form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D



Team News

St Johnstone manager Tommy Wright pictured in January 2016© Reuters

Montrose have a 39-hour turnaround between the Patrick Thistle match and this one, but boss Stewart Petrie has insisted that he will not use that as an excuse.

In fact, the visitors will not travel to Rugby Park until the morning of the game, so expect some tired legs in their ranks.

Petrie will make changes on the back of the heavy loss to Patrick Thistle, with the likes of Robbie McGale and Craig Johnston among those pushing for inclusion.

Killie have had a full week's rest since their four-goal draw with Ross County and have near enough a clean bill of health for this contest.

Wright must find the right balance in terms of team selection, though a strong XI is expected this weekend.

Kilmarnock possible starting lineup:
Doyle; McGowan, Broadfoot, Medley, Haunstrup; Burke, Power, Dicker, Pinnock; McKenzie; Lafferty

Montrose possible starting lineup:
Fleming; Ballantyne, Dillon, Quinn, Steeves; Masson, Ballantyne; Milne; Webster, McLean, Antoniazzi


SM words green background

We say: Kilmarnock 2-1 Montrose

Kilmarnock have struggled in the league this season and will prioritise survival over a cup run, whereas Montrose will also have an eye on Tuesday's clash with Cove Rangers.

Ultimately, we expect the home side's quality to tell over the 90 minutes in what should be a fairly tight contest.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 53.5%. A win for Montrose had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Montrose win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.


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St Johnstone manager Tommy Wright pictured in January 2016
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