Japan Under-23s and Mexico Under-23s will meet in Saitama on Sunday, with both teams knowing that a victory would see them advance to the quarter-final stage of the 2020 Olympics.
Mexico opened their Group A campaign with an impressive 4-1 victory over France Under-23s on Thursday, while Japan recorded a 1-0 win over South Africa Under-23s in Tokyo on the same evening.
Match preview
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Japan have placed themselves in a strong position in the section courtesy of their one-goal success over South Africa; Real Madrid's Takefusa Kubo scored the only goal of the contest in the 71st minute, and the hosts would qualify for the quarter-finals if they were to pick up another win here.
Indeed, Mexico top the section on goal difference, with South Africa and France sitting third and fourth respectively. The top two in each group will advance to the last eight of the competition, which is an indication of how important it is to pick up three points in your first match in this particular format.
Japan will complete their Group A challenge against France on July 28, and Hajime Moriyasu will not want his side to enter that match needing to secure something in order to book their spot in the knockout round.
The 2010 Asian Games gold medallists failed to make it out of the group stage at the 2016 Olympics but finished fourth in 2012, and they had entered this summer's competition in impressive form.
Indeed, Japan have now won three of their last four matches and have lost just one of their last six, while a strong squad means that they must be taken extremely seriously in this competition.
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Mexico, meanwhile, opened their tournament with an impressive 4-1 victory over France at the Tokyo Stadium on Wednesday evening.
Alexis Vega, Sebastian Cordova, Uriel Antuna and Eduardo Aguirre were on the scoresheet for El Tri, who are now top of Group A and in pole position to advance to the quarter-finals with a match to spare.
Mexico will round off their group-stage campaign against South Africa on July 28, and it would be a surprise if they did not qualify from this position considering the strength of their squad this summer.
Jaime Lozano's side are unbeaten in all competitions since the 2016 Olympics and have won eight of their last nine matches during a brilliant run of form.
Mexico were gold medallists at the 2012 Olympics, beating Brazil Under-23s in the final, but they actually failed to make it out of the group stage in the 2016 Games despite picking up four points from three matches.
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Team News
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Japan did not suffer any injury problems during their win over South Africa, and it would not be a surprise to see head coach Moriyasu send the same starting XI onto the field.
Kubo, who scored the only goal of his side's opener, is certain to retain his spot in an attacking area, while Daichi Hayashi is likely to keep his position at the top end of the pitch.
Former Southampton centre-back Maya Yoshida is the captain of Japan Under-23s and will again line up at the back, while Manchester City's Ko Itakura is also set to feature in the middle of the defence.
As for Mexico, two players came off the bench to score against France, with Antuna and Eduardo Aguirre both registering in the final 10 minutes of their team's section opener.
Head coach Lozano is unlikely to change his starting XI, though, meaning that it should again be a 4-3-3 formation, with Diego Lainez operating alongside Henry Martin and Vega.
Aside from Lainez, who plays his football in Spain with Real Betis, the entire squad are based in Mexico, including veteran goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa.
Alongside Ochoa and Martin, Luis Romo is the third over-age player in the squad, and the 26-year-old is expected to again feature in a midfield position for Mexico.
Japan Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Tani; Sakai, Yoshida, Ikakura, Nakayama; Tanaka, Endo; Doan, Kubo, Miyoshi; Hayashi
Mexico Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Vazquez, E Aguirre; Rodriguez, Romo, Cordova; Vega, Martin, Lainez
We say: Japan Under-23s 1-2 Mexico Under-23s
Both of these sides will believe that they can cause the other problems in the final third of the field, but it is difficult to look past Mexico considering their excellent performance against France. We are expecting a relatively tight match on Sunday but have ultimately backed Mexico to pick up a vital three points.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Japan Under-23s win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Mexico Under-23s had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Japan Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.96%) and 2-0 (5.19%). The likeliest Mexico Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Japan Under-23s in this match.
