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J1 League | Gameweek 21
Jun 30, 2024 at 10am UK
Yanmar Stadium Nagai

Cerezo
2 - 1
Nagoya Grampus

Ceara (26'), Fernandes (65')
Watanabe (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Kubo (76')
Mikuni (30'), Shiihashi (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's J1 League clash between Cerezo Osaka and Nagoya Grampus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cerezo 1-0 Sagan Tosu
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League
Last Game: Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Urawa
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

We said: Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Nagoya Grampus

Coming into this clash in a good vein of form, Cerezo should be confident of recording their fourth straight home win across all competitions on Sunday. Nagoya battled on with a numerical disadvantage during their loss earlier in the week, and we feel that it could be another difficult day for the Grampus Eight in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 36.94%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.

Result
Cerezo OsakaDrawNagoya Grampus
35.6% (-0.219 -0.22) 27.46% (0.114 0.11) 36.94% (0.11 0.11)
Both teams to score 49.43% (-0.359 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.78% (-0.44600000000001 -0.45)56.22% (0.449 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.73% (-0.36 -0.36)77.27% (0.364 0.36)
Cerezo Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.9% (-0.357 -0.36)30.1% (0.36 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.75% (-0.434 -0.43)66.24% (0.43599999999999 0.44)
Nagoya Grampus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.72% (-0.151 -0.15)29.28% (0.153 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.76% (-0.187 -0.19)65.24% (0.19 0.19)
Score Analysis
    Cerezo Osaka 35.6%
    Nagoya Grampus 36.94%
    Draw 27.46%
Cerezo OsakaDrawNagoya Grampus
1-0 @ 10.58% (0.08 0.08)
2-1 @ 7.8% (-0.055 -0.05)
2-0 @ 6.35% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.12% (-0.053 -0.05)
3-0 @ 2.54% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.92% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-1 @ 0.94% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 35.6%
1-1 @ 12.99% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 8.81% (0.151 0.15)
2-2 @ 4.79% (-0.054 -0.05)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 27.46%
0-1 @ 10.82% (0.14 0.14)
1-2 @ 7.98% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.65% (0.058000000000001 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.27% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.72% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.96% (-0.031 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 36.94%

How you voted: Cerezo vs Nagoya Grampus

Cerezo Osaka
57.1%
Draw
28.6%
Nagoya Grampus
14.3%
28
Head to Head
Apr 21, 2024 7am
Gameweek 9
Nagoya Grampus
2-1
Cerezo
Mikuni (65'), Nagai (82')
Yoshida (23'), Mikuni (62'), Chang-Rae (87'), Ha (87'), Morishima (90+3')
Mikuni (67')
Capixaba (78')
Aug 26, 2023 11.30am
Gameweek 25
Cerezo
3-1
Nagoya Grampus
Uejo (9', 71'), Kitano (88')
Morishita (12')
Jun 3, 2023 8am
Gameweek 16
Nagoya Grampus
3-1
Cerezo
Izumi (21'), Maruyama (31'), Mateus (43')
Nov 5, 2022 5am
May 14, 2022 6am
Gameweek 13
Nagoya Grampus
1-0
Cerezo
Sento (6')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sanfrecce HiroshimaHiroshima321711463323162
2Vissel KobeVissel Kobe32187751302161
3Machida Zelvia32178746242259
4Kashima AntlersKashima Antlers3114894839950
5Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka31131173526950
6Tokyo Verdy32121284242048
7FC Tokyo32138114643347
8Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus32144144038246
9Cerezo OsakaCerezo31101293840-242
10Yokohama F MarinosYokohama31125145253-141
11Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki311010115045540
12Avispa Fukuoka32913102833-540
13Urawa Red DiamondsUrawa30109114340339
14Albirex Niigata32109134351-839
15Kyoto Sanga31108133750-1338
16Shonan BellmareShonan Bellmare3298154450-635
17Kashiwa ReysolReysol31811123444-1035
18Jubilo Iwata3188153651-1532
19Consadole SapporoConsadole3278173657-2129
20Sagan Tosu3274213862-2425


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