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Iraq national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Mar 24, 2022 at 5pm UK
 
United Arab Emirates national football team

Iraq
1 - 0
UAE

Ali (53')
Faez (59')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mabkhout (26'), Marzooq (56'), Abdalla (65'), Al Baloushi (90+3')

Preview: Iraq vs. United Arab Emirates - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Iraq and United Arab Emirates, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Iraq meet United Arab Emirates in Riyadh with both countries still harbouring hopes of qualifying for this year's World Cup.

The two sides are targeting a playoff place in Asian qualifying; Iraq are currently fifth in Group A, four points behind UAE who are in third.


Match preview

Iraq's Ayman Hussein celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on February 1, 2022© Reuters

This game was set to be the first official international in Baghdad since the 2003 US-led invasion, but it has been switched to Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh due Sunday's missile attack on the northern city of Erbil.

Iraq have not won any of their eight games in the group so far, but remain in contention for qualification following five draws. However, only a victory in this fixture will keep their hopes alive before they face bottom of the table Syria in the final group game next week.

The squad's confidence will have been boosted by a 3-1 win over Zambia in a friendly last week, which was Abdul Ghani Shahad's first game in charge.

Abdul-Ghani, previously the country's Under-23 manager, has replaced Montenegrin Zeljko Petrovic who was sacked last month.

Iraq, who have only appeared at the World Cup once before in 1986, are the lowest scorers in this stage of Asian qualifying with just four goals in eight games.

With Iran and South Korea already qualified from Group A, UAE currently occupy the playoff place; if they can hold on to it they will face the third-placed team in Group B and then an intercontinental playoff if victorious.

They are currently three points ahead of fourth-place Lebanon, meaning they can secure a playoff spot if they win this game and Lebanon fail to beat Syria. UAE then face South Korea next week and Lebanon meet Iran.

Like Iraq, UAE have turned to a new manager in the hope of securing a place at their first World Cup since 1990; this is a first game at the helm for ex-Argentinian international Rodolfo Arruabarrena.

He succeeds former Netherlands boss Bert van Marwijk, who was fired after a run of three defeats in four matches.

These two countries played out a thrilling 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture in qualifying, as Ali Mabkhout scored a 94th-minute equaliser for UAE after Aymen Hussein had appeared to win it for Iraq in the 89th minute.

Iraq World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D

Iraq form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W

United Arab Emirates World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

United Arab Emirates form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

United Arab Emirates' Yahya Al Ghassani celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Iraq's first choice goalkeeper Fahad Talib has suffered a knee injury and is absent, so Mohammed Hameed is likely to get the nod between the sticks.

Centre-back Saad Natiq scored in the friendly against Zambia last week, but has since pulled out of the squad due to injury.

Manchester United teenager Zidane Iqbal will be hoping to earn more minutes after making his debut in January.

UAE frontman Ali Mabkhout, who has 14 goals across all stages of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup, is available again after missing the games earlier in the year.

Like his opposite number, Rodolfo Arruabarrena is also without his first choice goalkeeper as Ali Khasif is sidelined.

Iraq possible starting lineup:
Hameed; Karim, Ibrahim, Younis, Raed, Ismail; Ali Abbood, Abdul-Amir; Abdulkareem, Hussein, Bayesh

United Arab Emirates possible starting lineup:
Al-Shamsi; Hussain, Al-Attas, Abbas, Al Hammadi; Hassan, Salmin; Al-Zaabi, Saleh, Al Ghassani; Mabkhout


SM words green background

We say: Iraq 1-1 United Arab Emirates

This is a really intriguing clash as both countries have new managers and both can still finish in Group A's playoff spot. We think it will end all square, which would end Iraq's hopes and leave UAE going into their final game against South Korea with all to play for.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 48.72%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.26%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Iraq win it was 1-0 (8.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Iraq vs UAE

Iraq
38.3%
Draw
27.7%
United Arab Emirates
34.0%
47
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Saudi Arabia's Feras Al Brikan celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 27, 2022
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