Two sides who have yet to open their accounts in the Copa Libertadores group stages face each other in Quito on Wednesday night, when Independiente del Valle host Universitario.
Los Negriazules have conceded in each of their last seven games in all competitions, while the Peruvian visitors have conceded three times in both of their opening Group A matches.
Match preview
© Reuters
Independiente del Valle's nine-game unbeaten run in all competitions was ended in dramatic fashion last Wednesday, when they were thrashed 5-0 away at Copa Libertadores holders Palmeiras last week.
The visitors dominated the game with 63% possession but they were caught out on several occasions, with the hosts taking advantage and cruising to a comfortable victory in Sao Paulo.
Since then, Renato Paiva's men were defeated 2-1 by Manta FC in the Ecuadorian Serie A, which now leaves them seven points behind league leaders Emelec with a game in hand.
Paiva will have been aware that the trip to Palmeiras would be their hardest encounter in Group A, however he would have been hoping to avoid such a heavy defeat.
Los Negriazules still have a good chance of progressing to the knockout stages of the Copa Libertadores and a victory on Wednesday could move them into the top two, if Defensa y Justicia were to lose to Palmeiras.
After conceding a 95th-minute strike to Palmeiras and losing their opening Copa Libertadores match in April, Universitario were defeated 3-0 in their second game away at Defensa y Justicia last week.
A brace from Walter Bou as well as a strike from Francisco Pizzini secured a comfortable victory for the Argentinian outfit and leaves Angel Comizzo's side at the foot of Group A.
Since then, Universitario have bounced back with a 2-1 win against Alianza Atletico in the Peruvian Primeira Division, which has moved them to within five points of the summit with a game in hand on league leaders Ayacucho.
Los Merengues have rarely progressed into the latter stages of the Copa Libertadores, reaching the final only once in their history, losing to Independiente back in 1972.
A victory on Wednesday would get their campaign back on track and would boost their hopes of progressing to the knockout stages for the second successive year.
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
After conceding five goals last week against Palmeiras, Independiente del Valle may revert to a back three, which will likely include defenders Richard Schunke, William Pacho Tenorio and Luis Segovia.
Top goalscorer Brian Montenegro and forward Mateo Ortiz were both rested for Sunday's game but could start together in attack at the expense of Joffre Escobar and Jacob Murillo.
Universitario goalkeeper Aamet Calderon is set to miss the rest of the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon, while striker Alexander Succar had surgery on his Achilles tendon last month and is set for several weeks on the sidelines.
Defender Ivan Santillan, who has missed the last seven matches in all competitions, is also ruled out because of a knee injury.
Comizzo is not expected to make too many changes to his first XI but midfielder Jorge Torres could return to the side at the expense of Gerson Barreto.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Schunke, Tenorio, Segovia; Cheme, Pellerano, Realpe, Faravelli, Guerrero; Montenegro, Ortiz
Universitario possible starting lineup:
Carvallo; Chavez, Alonso, Quina, Corzo; Alfageme, Torres; Quintero, Novick, Urruti; Gutierrez
We say: Independiente del Valle 3-1 Universitario
Both Independiente del Valle and Universitario have struggled defensively in recent weeks so Wednesday's encounter could see plenty of goalmouth action.
The two teams will be keen to get their Copa Libertadores campaigns back on track with a victory, but we feel that the hosts will respond from last week's thrashing by Palmeiras to secure all three points at the Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Universitario had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.97%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Universitario win it was 0-1 (7.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
