Honduras Under-23s and Romania Under-23s will both play their first match of the Olympic Games Men's Football tournament on Thursday, when they clash in Kashima.
The two nations have been drawn in Group B alongside New Zealand and South Korea and will both be desperate to get off to a winning start to boost their chances of qualifying for the knockout stage.
Match preview
Honduras Under-23s find themselves at this stage having progressed through the CONCACAF Men's Olympic Qualifying Championship in 2020.
They firstly advanced through the group stage in relatively comfortable fashion, thrashing Haiti 3-0 and drawing with Canada and El Salvador to finish at the top of Group B on goal difference.
Miguel Falero's side would then record an impressive 2-1 win over USA Under-23s in the semi-final thanks to goals quickly either side of half time through Juan Obregon and Luis Palma.
While they eventually fell short in the final to Mexico on a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw, the semi-final victory meant Honduras took one of the two Olympic places on offer, seeing them move into this year's tournament somewhat against the odds.
They recently took on Japan Under-23s in a warm-up friendly but fell to a disappointing 3-1 defeat, and they will hope to put that behind them and start the group stage in style.
To do that, they will have to get past a Romania Under-23s side who should fancy themselves to qualify out of the group.
The Romanian national team qualified for this year's Olympic Games tournament through their impressive performance in the UEFA European Under-21 Championship in 2019.
They would progress out of the group stage in style, recording a 4-1 win over Croatia Under-21s and a 4-2 win against a heavily-fancied England Under-21s side as well as a goalless draw with France Under-21s to keep the chasing side at bay.
Romania's first-placed finish saw them drawn against Germany in the semi-finals, and they would fall short, suffering an agonising 4-2 defeat as Luca Waldschmidt and Nadiem Amiri each netted a goal after the 90th minute to cruelly snatch the victory before extra time.
Nonetheless, the top-two finish in the group stage saw Romania earn a place in the Olympics Football tournament for their Under-23s side, which is set to look similar to the Under-19 team that impressed on the continental stage two years ago.
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Team News
Despite being allowed to name three over-aged players, Honduras opted to include just two in their Under-23s squad, calling upon Primeiro de Agosto midfielder Brayan Moya and Olimpia forward Jorge Benuche, who spent last season out on loan in the Portuguese top flight with Boavista.
Benuche should lead the line with the support of attacker Douglas Martinez, who plays his club football for Real Salt Lake in the MLS.
Furthermore, Rigoberto Rives could play a key role behind the forwards, having recently been snapped up by Reggina after a successful loan spell from Inter Milan last year, seeing him find the net seven times in 34 appearances.
Dragos Nedelcu was initially named in Romania's squad for the upcoming tournament, but he was forced to drop out to complete a transfer, seeing Ronaldo Deaconu come in as a replacement.
They will come into the game without midfielder Tudor Baluta, who has been ruled out through injury.
George Ganea should lead the line with the support of Valentin Gheorghe, who has registered 28 goals and nine assists in 119 appearances for Astra Giurgiu in all competitions.
Honduras Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Guity; Maldonado, Carlos Melendez, Decas, Christopher Melendez; Nunez, Rodriguez, Moya; Rivas; Benuche, Martinez
Romania Under-23s possible starting lineup:
Popa; Boboc, Pascanu, Stefan, Ghita; Marin, Ciobanu, Florescu; Sintean, Ganea, Gheorghe
We say: Honduras Under-23s 1-1 Romania Under-23s
The two sides come into the game on a fairly level playing field, and we cannot quite pick a winner, instead opting for a point each from the opening match.
The nature of the match could see both sides take few risks as they prioritise avoiding a harmful defeat to start the group stage, potentially seeing this become a low-scoring encounter as a result.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania Under-23s win with a probability of 60.36%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Honduras Under-23s had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania Under-23s win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.44%) and 0-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.7%), while for a Honduras Under-23s win it was 2-1 (5.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Romania Under-23s would win this match.
