FC Utrecht will be hoping to keep in close proximity to the top five in the Eredivisie standings when they face Heerenveen on Sunday evening.
At a time when the visitors sit in seventh position, Heerenveen have dropped down to 11th place after losing six games in a row.
Match preview
Having ended last season in sixth position, everyone associated with Utrecht is hoping that they can go one better this time around as they look to secure a return to European football.
However, they have posted just two wins from their last nine matches, and Rene Hake's team are now realistically outsiders to break into the top five.
Making up a six-point gap during their final 11 matches remains a possibility, but conceding a last-minute goal to rivals Vitesse, who had 10 men, last weekend could prove pivotal.
On a positive note, Ajax are out of the way for this season, although the Cathedral Citizens are under pressure to deliver in their next two matches ahead of playing host to PSV Eindhoven on March 13.
Attacker Moussa Sylla scored his fifth goal of the campaign last weekend, his first since recently returning from injury.
After being appointed as manager of Heerenveen on an interim basis, Ole Tobiasen has been tasked with trying to achieve a top-half finish, something which would represent an improvement on the last campaign.
However, the former assistant to Johnny Jansen has overseen a further three defeats, which have been against Fortuna Sittard, NEC and PSV respectively.
The Super Frisians were level at the break in the latter of those contests, but two quick goals in the second half put paid to their hopes of earning a surprise point.
Still sitting in 11th position, Heerenveen will feel relatively safe for now, although that could soon change with just eight points separating them and bottom spot.
The January exits of several key men has not helped their cause, and there are now only five players in the squad who have gotten on the scoresheet in the Eredivisie this season.
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Team News
With Sven van Beek, Nick Bakker and Tibor Halilovic all regarded as injury doubts, Tobiasen could make a number of changes to his Heerenveen side.
Lucas Woudenberg may get the nod in the middle of the backline, while Anthony Musaba is an alternative to Halilovic on the flank.
Utrecht appeared to be on their way to victory against Vitesse last weekend until Hake made three substitutions to his team.
With that in mind, the same starting lineup could be retained for this fixture, although Anastasios Douvikas is pushing for a recall.
Arthur Zagre and Naoki Maeda are among the players who feature on the injury list.
Heerenveen possible starting lineup:
Mous; Ewijk, Dresevic, Woudenberg, Kaib; Madsen, Haye; Musaba, Hajj, Stevanovic; De Jong
FC Utrecht possible starting lineup:
Keijzer; Ter Avest, Van der Hoorn, Maarel, Warmerden; Maher, Timber; Sylla, Van de Streek, Ramselaar; Veerman
We say: Heerenveen 1-2 FC Utrecht
With both clubs having failed to produce in recent matches, this feels like a difficult match to call. That said, when a team is on a seven-game losing streak, you cannot back them with any justification, leading us to predict a narrow victory for the visitors.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 49.49%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 25.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.81%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-0 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for FC Utrecht in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for FC Utrecht.
