Gateshead and Hednesford Town meet for the second time in three days as they square off in their FA Cup fourth qualifying round replay on Tuesday night.
The visitors to Tyneside, who are three tiers below their National League opponents in the English football pyramid, were full value for a spirited 1-1 draw at Keys Park.
Match preview
© Imago
Having provided with one of the toughest ties possible, most Hednesford fans had been realistic about their chances of causing a surprise against opponents who sit more than 80 places above them in the English football pyramid.
However, throughout an absorbing 90 minutes at Keys Park on Saturday afternoon, the Pitmen were more than a match for their higher-level opponents, squandering several clear-cut chances to take a first-half lead.
Gateshead can claim to have wasted similar opportunities in front of the BBC television cameras, yet they were fortunate to be moving into a 1-0 advantage when the opening goal arrived in the 64th minute through Tyrelle Newton.
Came for the goal, stayed for the celebration 🤩
— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) October 12, 2024
Tyrelle Newton pokes home for @GatesheadFC 🏡#EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/xyqjQG75Ef
Hednesford did not need long to find their equaliser through Rob Stevenson, however, who was composure personified inside the area to leave the majority of the 2,669 crowd dreaming of another FA Cup win for the archives.
Rob Stevenson with the most composed of finishes for @Hednesford_Town 🥶
— Emirates FA Cup (@EmiratesFACup) October 12, 2024
Just listen to what it means to their fans 🤍#EmiratesFACup pic.twitter.com/80RI9rvwWD
Prior to the game, Hednesford had been playing a re-run of their 1997 heroics, ultimately going down 3-2 to Middlesbrough in the fourth round, and fans who attended that famous day would have been wary of suffering late heartbreak against a North East side yet again.
However, Hednesford, who ply their trade in the eighth-tier Northern League Division One West Division, were able to defy the swarm of attacks that were coming from Gateshead, restricting them to far fewer openings than they had created in the opening 45 minutes.
The end result is a replay at the Gateshead International Stadium on Tuesday night, with the home side banking on making amends for a second indifferent performance in a row under interim boss Ben Clark.
Although they have netted just three times in three games since Rob Elliot's departure to Crawley Town, Gateshead have been outstanding in the North East this season, winning six of their seven National League games and scoring 15 goals in the process.
Hednesford have since plummeted down to 17th spot in their division, with games in hand on all the teams above them, but manager Steve King will be hoping that more amendments need to be made to their league schedule as they bid to earn a shot at playing in the first round proper.
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Team News
Clark could decide to shuffle his Gateshead XI for this game with Jean Belehouan, Tom Allan, Charlie Colkett and Jovan Malcolm all options to come into the side.
Robbie Tinkler is again expected to miss out with the injury that he picked up in Tuesday's defeat to Tamworth, while goalkeeper Tiernan Brooks remains away with Republic of Ireland Under-21s.
Meanwhile, King will need to assess several of his Hednesford side after they made their returns from injury for Saturday's game.
Sion Spence looks the most doubtful after hobbling off in the second half, while Dan Sparkes is another doubt having also picked up a knock.
If King freshens up his side, Omar Holness could be brought into central-midfield and Manny Duku used in attack. Hednesford can also call upon Jake Jervis who has served a one-match ban.
Gateshead possible starting lineup:
Moss; Hannant, Radcliffe, Belehouan; Adom, Booty, Butterfield, Worman; Whelan, Newton; Malcolm
Hednesford Town possible starting lineup:
Rose; Roberts, Johnson, Endall, Sparkes; Bearne, Maye, Holness, Taylor; Trickett-Smith; Duku
We say: Gateshead 4-1 Hednesford Town
While Hednesford can take every confidence from Saturday's performance, Gateshead have nearly been unbeatable in front of their own fans this season. With that in mind, the National League outfit could have more joy against opponents who may not benefit from the short turnaround and long trip to the North East.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gateshead win with a probability of 78.9%. A draw had a probability of 13.5% and a win for Hednesford Town had a probability of 7.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gateshead win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (8.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.32%), while for a Hednesford Town win it was 1-2 (2.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
