Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Asteras Tripolis win with a probability of 34.65%. A win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 34.28% and a draw had a probability of 31.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Asteras Tripolis win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.81%) and 2-1 (6.71%). The likeliest Aris Thessaloniki win was 0-1 (13.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Asteras Tripolis would win this match.