Gibraltar will be trying to pick up their first victory of their World Cup 2022 qualifying campaign when they travel to the Ullevaal Stadion to play Norway on Tuesday.
The hosts have picked up four points during this international break in Group G, with a victory potentially putting them top if other results go in their favour.
Match preview
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Norway are looking to qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 1998, and a victory on Tuesday could put them in a great position to do that with just four games remaining.
The Lions are currently third in the group with 10 points, being level with the Netherlands who they drew against earlier this month, and they are just one point behind Turkey who lead Group G.
Norway have three victories out of their opening five games in qualifying, one of which came during their most recent outing when they defeated Latvia 2-0 with a penalty from Erling Braut Haaland and a strike from Mohamed Elyounoussi securing the result.
The Borussia Dortmund striker is obviously the main attacking threat for the Lions, and he comes into this fixture having scored in consecutive games, which is a run he will be aiming to extend here.
The two teams have already competed once in qualifying and it was Norway who came out on top with a 3-0 victory in a match that they dominated with 84% possession.
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For Gibraltar, this qualifying process has proven to be one to forget so far, having lost every game in the competition, suffering some heavy defeats in the process.
A trio of second-half goals against Turkey on Tuesday saw Julio Ribas's men beaten in their last outing, which marked the second game in a row his team conceded three goals.
Defending has proven to be a big problem for the squad within this competition though as Gibraltar have actually let in 20 goals during their first five fixtures, which included a 7-0 loss to the Netherlands.
Gibraltar have not won a game since October 2020 when they defeated Liechtenstein 1-0 in the Nations League, which has created a nine-game run without a victory heading into Tuesday.
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Team News
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Talisman Haaland is sure to lead the line for his country once again in this fixture, with Elyounoussi also set to keep his place in the starting XI after scoring against Latvia.
Andre Hansen was given the chance to play in goal in the recent 2-0 victory due to Rune Jarstein having a positive COVID-19 case, and with a clean sheet in the bank, he could be set to retain his spot.
For the visitors, Tyjay De Barr should continue to play upfront for his country after he scored at the start of this set of international games in the 3-1 defeat to Latvia.
Anthony Hernandez was given the chance to partner him, leading the line against Turkey and while he failed to score in that game, he will likely keep his spot in the team.
Norway possible starting lineup:
Hansen; Pedersen, Ajer, Strandberg, Meling; Thorsby, Normann; Elyounoussi, Thorstvedt, Odegaard; Haaland
Gibraltar possible starting lineup:
Coleing; Sergeant, Wiseman, Chipolina, Britto; Torilla, Ronan, Mouelhi, Valarino; Barr, Hernandez
We say: Norway 4-0 Gibraltar
It is hard to look past anything other than a Norway victory in this particular fixture considering the form of each team, with the Lions likely set to cause Gibraltar some serious problems.
The visitors will be pleased to take any form of result here in order to get a much-needed point on the table, but Norway should have too much for them, bar a shock upset.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 63.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 14.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.01%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Norway would win this match.
