Genoa are still looking for their first win of the Serie A season as they welcome fellow strugglers Parma to the Marassi on Monday in dire need of a positive result.
Fabio Liverani's 17th-placed visitors have stalled badly too, with no goals in their past two league games and no wins since the start of October.
Match preview
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As has been common in recent seasons, Genoa have begun the 2020-21 campaign sluggishly - this time amid a slew of injuries and infections in Rolando Maran's camp. Now, after three consecutive defeats, the Ligurian side's season-long battle for Serie A salvation reaches an important juncture against a Parma side just a point above them in the table.
In three of the last four seasons Il Grifone have only gained five points after their first eight Serie A fixtures - both in 2017-18 and in 2019-20 they added points in the ninth round and must aim for the same again this year.
If they are to do so, it will most likely be win or bust against Parma, as Genoa have not drawn in 20 home league games since September 2019 in a run of seven wins and 13 defeats. The last Serie A team to reach 21 without a tie was Juventus in 2017 - for very different reasons - with a stunning 33 home wins in a row.
Maran's men will have been boosted though by a comeback Coppa Italia win in midweek over city rivals Sampdoria, in-form Gianluca Scamacca's double helping to seal a 3-1 win which sees them meet Juve in the last-16 early next year.
That cherished success in the Derby della Lanterna came after a dispiriting defeat at Udinese last week, when experienced goalkeeper Mattia Perin was sent off in injury time for bringing down the Zebrette's Jens Stryger Larsen. On Monday, they meet another direct rival for survival and must fare better if they want to keep in touch with those above them.
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Parma have a positive recent record in this fixture, as they have won their last four Serie A games against Genoa - scoring 13 goals in the process - which is their longest current winning run against a top-flight side. In fact, two of Parma's three historic Serie A away wins over the Rossoblu have come in their last two encounters, with just one in the 12 games prior.
However, the Gialloblu have only gained one point in their first four away games of the season - their near-miss visit to Inter Milan finishing 2-2 after the concession of a cruel late equalising goal.
After another aimless performance versus Roma last Sunday, coach Fabio Liverani switched from 3-5-2 to a four-man defence in the fourth round Coppa Italia tie with Serie B club Cosenza - in part due to several absences. It will be interesting to see if the ex-Palermo boss persists with such a setup in Genoa, after his team progressed thanks to a 2-1 win.
One of the central figures in Parma's attempt to take maximum points home, will be Juraj 'Kucko' Kucka, who registered six goals last season. The Slovakian playmaker featured in 122 league games for Genoa between 2011 and 2015 but is now a key cog in the Gialloblu machine. With his forward colleagues continually misfiring this term, perhaps the former Grifone favourite can return to haunt his former club on Monday.
Parma's Andreas Cornelius remarkably scored two successive hat-tricks against Genoa last season, so the recently goal-shy forward may also be sufficiently inspired by a return to the Marassi to help his toiling team collect some invaluable points.
Genoa Serie A form: DLDLLL
Genoa form (all competitions): WDLLLW
Parma Serie A form: WLDDDL
Parma form (all competitions): DWDDLW
Team News
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Genoa goalkeeper Mattia Perin is suspended due to his late sending-off last week, while defenders Davide Biraschi and Domenico Criscito are out injured.
On-loan Davide Zappacosta is recovering from a thigh strain but may not be ready until next week. Both veteran midfielder Valon Behrami and Nicolo Rovella are also expected to miss out.
Supporting the impressive Gianluca Scamacca up front in Rolando Maran's 4-3-2-1 formation will be either old stager Goran Pandev or Marko Pjaca.
Parma's injury list is longer and more problematic, as key man Hernani is doubtful due to a rib injury, while Giuseppe Pezzella suffered a thigh strain and may not return until the turn of the year.
Lautaro Valenti and Valentin Mihaila are also out and Matteo Sprocati is questionable because of a muscle strain.
Under-pressure coach Fabio Liverani must decide which of his unproductive strikers - Roberto Inglese, Yann Karamoh or Andreas Cornelius - should join Gervinho in a probable 4-3-1-2 setup.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Marchetti; Ghiglione, Bani, Masiello, Pellegrini; Sturaro, Badelj, Rovella; Pandev, Zajc; Scamacca
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Iacoponi, Osorio, Alves, Gagliolo; Grassi, Cyprien, Kurtic; Kucka; Gervinho, Inglese
We say: Genoa 1-2 Parma
The Ducali can tame the Grifone at Stadio Luigi Ferraris on Monday, as their numerous forward options will surely not continue firing blanks much longer.
Genoa's home record has been stark black or white in recent months - either win or lose. Despite Rolando Maran's desperate need for points to save his job, the Rossoblu just cannot keep the back door shut and will slip to another league defeat here.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Parma had a probability of 33.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Parma win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
