Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.29%. A win for Spartak Trnava had a probability of 36.39% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.46%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Spartak Trnava win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.