Needing at least a two-goal victory to have any hope of advancing beyond the third round of the Copa do Brasil, Sampaio Correa face a tall task when they head to the Maracana on Wednesday to battle Fluminense.
A 2-0 victory in the opening leg has the reigning Copa Libertadores champions well-positioned to advance into the last 16 of this tournament for a fourth successive campaign.
Match preview
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It took over a half hour for them to finally find a breakthrough in the opening leg of this tie, yet Fluminense rarely looked in danger.
Flu have won five consecutive third-round matches at this tournament and have not lost a second-leg fixture at this stage of the competition since 2021 (2-1 versus Bragantino).
Fernando Diniz's men are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions at the Maracana, netting multiple strikes on each occasion.
Meanwhile, this side have won their last five third-round Copa do Brasil fixtures at the Maracana, without a goal conceded in any of those triumphs.
Since suffering a 4-2 defeat versus Botafogo in early March, Fluzao are unbeaten when leading or even at the interval in any of their competitive fixtures.
It has been over six years since they were eliminated from a third-round tie at the Copa do Brasil, when Serie B side Avai shocked Flu 3-1 on aggregate in 2018.
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Sampaio Correa enter this encounter in a massive hole, down by two goals against a side who are two tiers above them in the Brazilian football league system.
Their odds of advancement are even longer given that they are winless in three successive matches in all competitions away from home, failing to score in any of those outings.
Ze Augusto's men have failed to score in any of their three competitive fixtures played this month, claiming a 0-0 draw at CSA in Serie C action this past weekend.
In 2024, this side have won just two competitive matches by three goals, with six of their victories this year being by two or more goals.
Bolivia were rather fortunate to advance beyond the opening round of this tournament, playing to a 1-1 draw with Humaita, but going through because they were ranked higher, which is the determining factor if a first-round clash at the Copa do Brasil ends in a tie.
The club based in San Luis have not lost a competitive fixture in normal time all year when finding the back of the net in the opening 45 minutes.
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Team News
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Several players could be out of the lineup for Fluzao on Wednesday, as Marlon and Andre have sore knees, while Lele is dealing with an ACL injury.
Thiago Santos and Douglas Costa are still recovering from thigh injuries, while Samuel Xavier is not expected to be available because of a sore foot.
Goals from David Terans and Jhon Arias in the first and second half respectively were more than enough to give them a comfortable victory in the opening leg of this tie.
We saw numerous new faces in the Sampaio starting 11 in the first leg of this tie who did not begin their second-round clash with Ferroviario, including Rafael, Fabio Aguiar, Ferreira, Gazao and Joao Felipe.
Their goalkeeper, Felipe, meanwhile conceded a first-half strike for the first time in the 2024 Copa do Brasil after posting a clean sheet in normal time of their second-round victory, which they wound up winning on penalties (5-3).
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fabio; Guga, Andrade, Carlos, Barbosa; Martinelli, Terans, Ganso; Lucumi, Augusto, Arias
Sampaio Correa possible starting lineup:
Felipe; Santos, Rafael, Franklin, Aguiar, Thallyson; Ferreira, Oliveira, Pimentinha; Brunao, Simoes
We say: Fluminense 5-0 Sampaio Correa (Fluminense advances 7-0 on aggregate)
The Maracana is one of the most intimidating environments to play in, and we believe that will be too much for Sampaio to handle, allowing Fluzao to win handily.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
