Bottom-half sides Fiorentina and Sassuolo face off at Stadio Artemio Franchi on Wednesday, both seeking their first victory since returning to Serie A action.
Sassuolo have played out a couple of entertaining six-goal draws in their last two matches and are three points better off than Fiorentina, who sit directly below them in 13th.
Match preview
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Roberto De Zerbi's side showed incredible fighting spirit in their high-scoring draws with Inter and Hellas Verona, scoring late on in both matches to rescue a point.
The manner of his team's defending in those games will surely be of concern to Zerbi, however, and they also shipped four goals in their first match back against Atalanta BC.
Two points from the nine on offer since the three-month hiatus - and one win in five going further back - has killed off Sassuolo's outside chances of finishing in a European spot.
The Neroverdi are eight points behind AC Milan in seventh, while the gap on the dropzone is nine points, suggesting that they are now merely jostling for position in mid-table.
The same is also true for Fiorentina, who have drawn 1-1 with Brescia and lost 2-1 away at Lazio in their first two games back.
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In fact, since thrashing Sampdoria 5-1 on February 16, Giuseppe Iachini's side have drawn three and lost one of their four matches.
Fiorentina have particularly struggled in home games this term, drawing six, losing five and winning only three times at Stadio Artemio Franchi - their worst return since 1970-71.
Sassuolo have picked up all three points just twice in their last 10 away league outings, however, and have conceded seven goals in the last two of those matches.
La Viola recovered from a goal down to win the reverse fixture 2-1 in October, making it two wins apiece and two draws over the last six encounters.
Successive wins in this fixture will be the aim for Iachini on Wednesday. A failure to achieve that aim and relegation can still not be entirely ruled out for his side.
Fiorentina's Serie A form: LWDLDD
Fiorentina's form (all competitions): WWDLDD
Sassuolo's Serie A form: WLWLDD
Team News
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Federico Chiesa is back from suspension for Fiorentina, while head coach Iachini is also back in the dugout after serving a ban of his own last time out.
Defender Martin Caceres is still suspended, however, and Dusan Vlahovic will also miss this midweek clash due to disciplinary reasons.
Iachini will have to check on the fitness of Franck Ribery, who has started two games over the past week or so, with Riccardo Sottil a possible candidate to come into the side.
As for Sassuolo, De Zerbi will once again be without defenders Filippo Romagna and Jeremy Toljan for this trip to Tuscany.
Marlon Santos is pushing for a recall at the back and it may well be that Gian Marco Ferrari also returns in the heart of defence.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Venuti, Milenkovic, Pezzella, Dalbert; Duncan, Pulgar, Castrovilli; Chiesa, Cutrone, Ribery
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Muldur, Marlon, Ferrari, Rogerio; Locatelli, Obiang; Berardi, Defrel, Boga; Caputo
We say: Fiorentina 1-1 Sassuolo
These sides are separated by just one place in the table and are both seeking a first win since returning to action. If their recent encounters are anything to go by then a tight contest can be expected in Florence on Wednesday, one that we are expecting to finish level.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.35%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 27% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.57%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
