Hatayspor and Fenerbahce square off on Sunday afternoon with the home side looking to remain above their more illustrious opponents in the Super Lig standings.
Both teams have collected 13 points from their six fixtures this season, Hatayspor sitting marginally ahead in third position courtesy of a superior goal difference.
Match preview
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Fenerbahce have not had things their own way of late, Vitor Pereira's team going three games without a win in all competitions before Thursday's fixture with Giresunspor.
However, goals from Ferdi Kadioglu and Mesut Ozil helped Fenerbahce earn a 2-1 victory over the strugglers on Thursday night, moving the club to within one point of first place.
Conceding five minutes from time meant that the closing stages were far more tense than they needed to be, but Pereira would not have minded his team having to come through some nervy moments.
Next up for the Yellow Canaries are games against Hatayspor and Olympiacos, fixtures which will determine whether they head into the next international break with optimism or much to ponder.
Kadioglu and Ozil have now emerged as the team's two key men in the final third, both players contributing two goals and an assist in Super Lig.
While Hatayspor enjoyed a strong 2020-21, few people would have expected to see Omer Erdogan's side just one point off top spot after six matches.
That particularly rung true when they went down 2-1 at Galatasaray on the second weekend, but they have responded in perfect fashion.
Eleven goals and three clean sheets have come from four matches, their latest triumph coming by a 2-0 scoreline at Goztepe on Wednesday.
Mame Biram Diouf continued his rich vein of form with a double, taking his tally to four goals and one assist from his six league appearances.
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Team News
Mehdi Boudjemaa appears most likely to take the place of Hatayspor midfielder Isaac Sackey, who went off injured during the first half against Goztepe.
The remaining four alterations came in the closing stages, a sign that Erdogan will stick with the rest of the team which started that fixture.
Mergin Berisha may be handed an immediate recall by Fenerbahce boss Pereira after chipping in with an assist against Giresunspor.
Miguel Silva is an option in central midfield after playing the second half of that game, his first appearance since signing from Estoril.
Diego Rossi will hope to keep his place in the final third after making an impact in midweek.
Hatayspor possible starting lineup:
Mohamedi; Corekci, Kurucuk, Oksuz, Adekugbe; Boudjemaa, Ribeiro; Lobzhanidze, Traore, Kaabi; Diouf
Fenerbahce possible starting lineup:
Bayindir; Kim, Aziz, Szalai; Samuel; Silva, Gustavo, Kadioglu; Rossi, Ozil; Berisha
We say: Hatayspor 1-2 Fenerbahce
As the form team in the division, Hatayspor deserve plenty of respect ahead of this contest. However, they are yet to beat one of Turkey's big guns, and that has led us to backing a narrow triumph for the visitors in a high-stakes game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Hatayspor had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Hatayspor win was 1-0 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.
