Everton begin a new Premier League era under Rafael Benitez at Goodison Park on Saturday, as Southampton pay a visit to Merseyside in the opening weekend.
The Toffees will seek to sustain a European charge this term, while Southampton will aim to condemn the second half of their 2020-21 season to history.
Match preview
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Benitez's Everton appointment was understandably met with grim looks from the red and some of the blue half of Merseyside - although a minority took their frustrations too far with threatening banners - but the former Liverpool boss is firmly in control of the reins following Carlo Ancelotti's return to Real Madrid.
The Spaniard has technically already claimed one piece of silverware during his fledgling Toffees career - steering Everton to a Florida Cup success with a penalty shootout win over Millonarios - but their most recent pre-season game ended in a 4-0 humbling at the hands of Manchester United.
Of course, a crushing defeat in Manchester is exactly how Everton ended their 2020-21 season at the home of the champions - with Sergio Aguero netting twice in his farewell game during a 5-0 success for Manchester City - and Toffees fans will need no reminding that they won just three of their final 12 games last season.
On a more positive note, not since the 2011-12 season have Everton lost on the opening weekend - a 1-0 defeat to Queens Park Rangers - and the return of the Goodison Park faithful ought to help them recover from a dismal record of two wins from 12 league games at home since the turn of the year.
A trio of underwhelming incomings in Asmir Begovic, Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend have not exactly served to increase the optimism on Merseyside, but the big story out of the Southampton camp has been the sudden sale of a certain centre-forward.
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Despite previous optimism that he would pen a new deal at St Mary's, Danny Ings's departure to Aston Villa was confirmed while Ralph Hasenhuttl's side welcomed Levante to the South Coast, but the Saints have moved quickly to fill the void left by the prolific poacher.
Adam Armstrong and Armando Broja have both arrived at a Southampton side aiming to right the wrongs of the second half of their 2020-21 Premier League campaign, as the side tipped for a shock Champions League place at one point ended up languishing in 15th place come May.
Southampton's preparations for the new season did not end in ideal fashion, as Athletic Bilbao eased to a 3-1 success upon their recent visit to English soil, but Hasenhuttl has witnessed his side secure wins over Levante, Cardiff City and Swansea City, although their away form from the back end of last season will be music to the ears of Everton fans.
Indeed, the Saints lost 10 of their last 11 matches on the road in the 2020-21 campaign - with a 2-0 victory at Sheffield United representing the only silver lining in that sequence - while they shipped 15 goals in their final five matches on unfamiliar territory.
A 1-0 defeat to Everton at Goodison Park came during that abysmal spell for Southampton, who have not beaten the Toffees away from home in the league since the 1997-98 season, and out of the all the sides to feature in at least 10 Premier League seasons, Southampton's opening-day win rate of 9% puts them at the bottom of the pile.
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Team News
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Everton's Olympic gold medallist Richarlison has incredibly navigated an entire summer of football without taking a break, and reports have claimed that his name is in the hat for the opening weekend.
Benitez should opt for Dominic Calvert-Lewin to play alongside Richarlison up top after he shook off an ankle complaint, but James Rodriguez is one of several players currently in isolation.
Moise Kean is back in the fold following a successful loan spell at Paris Saint-Germain but is struggling with a knock, while Andre Gomes and Jean-Philippe Gbamin will also need to be assessed prior to kickoff.
As for Southampton, Broja and Armstrong may not be deemed ready for starts so soon after arriving, so Nathan Tella and Che Adams could form the strike partnership for the time being.
Hasenhuttl has affirmed that James Ward-Prowse will be available after shaking off a knee injury, while Will Smallbone and Sam McQueen are the visitors' only other injury concerns.
Former Brest left-back Romain Perraud seems set to nail down a place in the first XI, but on the other side, Tino Livramento has work to do if he is to force his way into the picture over Kyle Walker-Peters.
Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Coleman, Godfrey, Keane, Digne; Townsend, Allan, Doucoure, Iwobi; Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison
Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Salisu, Perraud; Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Romeu, Djenepo; Adams, Tella
We say: Everton 1-1 Southampton
Benitez's arrival may never be warmly received by the entirety of the Everton faithful, but an opening-day victory would be the perfect way to endear himself to the supporters.
Southampton's record at Goodison Park should lead to optimism within the hosts' ranks, but the visiting forwards will be out to prove their worth to Hasenhuttl with greater competition for places, and we can envisage an opening-day stalemate on Merseyside.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Southampton win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Everton would win this match.
