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Everton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 20
Mar 17, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Goodison Park
Newcastle logo

Everton
1 - 0
Newcastle

Iwobi (90+9')
Richarlison (64'), Gordon (76')
Allan (83')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Krafth (76')

Preview: Everton vs. Newcastle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Premier League clash between Everton and Newcastle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Having missed a golden opportunity to take all three points against Manchester United, Newcastle United return to Premier League action against Everton on Thursday night.

While the Magpies were held to a 1-1 stalemate by Ralf Rangnick's men, the Toffees have not played since December 16 amid the surge in COVID-19 cases.


Match preview

Everton manager Rafael Benitez, December 1, 2021© Reuters

After Everton boss Rafael Benitez revealed that his side had no more than nine outfield players fit and available for the Boxing Day meeting with Burnley, the festive game was ultimately postponed at the second time of asking for the Toffees.

There is certainly no guarantee that Thursday's game will go ahead as planned - with Newcastle also dealing with an absentee crisis of their own - but Benitez will not want to pass up an opportunity to get one over his former employers.

The Toffees' most recent Premier League encounter also saw Benitez pit his wits against another one of his old clubs, with Everton managing to hold Chelsea to a 1-1 draw two weeks ago, but their otherwise dire form leaves them 15th in the table ahead of Thursday's contest.

Benitez has overseen just one win from his side's last 11 games in the English top flight - simply unacceptable for a club of Everton's calibre - and only eight points separate them from Burnley in the relegation zone, with the Clarets boasting two games in hand.

Everton did manage to end their miserable home rut with that last-gasp win over Arsenal earlier this month, but with uncertainty lingering over the availability of Benitez's players, it is difficult to know exactly what to predict in midweek.

Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe, December 27, 2021© Reuters

Despite seeing two key attacker trudge off the pitch to add to their mounting absentee problems, Newcastle truly took the game to Man United and were arguably unfortunate to take just one point from the contest rather than all three.

Allan Saint-Maximin put the Magpies 1-0 up before leaving the field injured, but not before Man United substitute Edinson Cavani poked home at the second attempt to ensure that the Red Devils would not suffer an embarrassing defeat at St James' Park.

Holding Man United to a point is an impressive feat on the face of it, but that has done little to aid Newcastle's prospects of survival, with Eddie Howe's side still 19th in the rankings at the midway point of the season - two points adrift of safety having played two more games than 17th-placed Watford.

Furthermore, Newcastle are one of two sides yet to win away from home in the 2021-22 Premier League and have lost each of their last three on the road, so the January transfer window cannot come soon enough for one of the world's richest clubs.

However, Newcastle managed to do the double over Everton in their two Premier League clashes last season, and the Toffees can only boast one win from their last six top-flight meetings with the Tyneside outfit.

Everton Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D

Newcastle United Premier League form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Everton's Richarlison with manager Rafael Benitez after being substituted, December 12, 2021© Reuters

Everton did not reveal which players were affected by COVID-19 during their outbreak, but Lucas Digne, Demarai Gray and Fabian Delph are all reported to have come down with illnesses recently.

Benitez should be boosted by the return of Dominic Calvert-Lewin up top, but Richarlison has joined Yerry Mina, Andros Townsend and Salomon Rondon in the treatment room.

Allan and Tom Davies should both be fit to return to the middle of the park if called upon, while Jarrad Branthwaite will eye another start in defence after scoring at Stamford Bridge.

Meanwhile, Newcastle boss Howe does not believe that Saint-Maximin went off with anything serious on Monday, but Callum Wilson is feared to be facing months on the sidelines.

Isaac Hayden returns from a ban while Javier Manquillo prepares to serve a suspension of his own, while Saint-Maximin and Wilson are joined in the treatment room by Federico Fernandez, Jamal Lewis and Ryan Fraser - who suffered a thigh strain in the Man United draw.

As ever, the identities of Newcastle's COVID-positive contingent were not revealed, but Joe Willock, Karl Darlow, Ciaran Clark and Matt Ritchie were all absent from the matchday squad last time out.

Miguel Almiron and Dwight Gayle could both come into consideration for starts with Wilson and Saint-Maximin out, while Hayden could rejoin the midfield if Joelinton is forced back over to the left.

Everton possible starting lineup:
Pickford; Coleman, Branthwaite, Keane, Godfrey; Allan, Doucoure, Davies; Iwobi, Calvert-Lewin, Gordon

Newcastle United possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Krafth, Schar, Lascelles, Murphy; Almiron, Shelvey, Hayden, Longstaff, Joelinton; Gayle


SM words green background

We say: Everton 1-0 Newcastle United

Given both sides' struggles for victories and continued uncertainty surrounding their COVID-positive contingents, it would take a brave soul to confidently predict the outcome of this contest.

The expected absences of Wilson and Saint-Maximin will harm Newcastle greatly against a refreshed Everton outfit, and we expect Benitez to have the last laugh against his former club in a narrow win.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 45.92%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Everton in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Everton vs Newcastle

Everton
21.8%
Draw
16.8%
Newcastle United
61.4%
303
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2Manchester CityMan City1072121111023
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest10541147719
4Chelsea105322012818
5Arsenal105321711618
6Aston Villa105321715218
7Tottenham HotspurSpurs1051422111116
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton104421714316
9Fulham104331413115
10Bournemouth104331312115
11Newcastle UnitedNewcastle104331010015
12Brentford104151920-113
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd10334912-312
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham103251319-611
15Leicester CityLeicester102441418-410
16Everton102351017-79
17Crystal Palace10145813-57
18Ipswich TownIpswich100551021-115
19Southampton10118719-124
20Wolverhampton WanderersWolves100371427-133


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