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Potential new EL header

Europa League
Europa League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 18, 2024 at 5pm UK
Stadio Stelios Kyriakides

Pafos
2 - 5
Elfsborg

Holmen (25' og.), Dragomir (43')
Name (56')
Correia (15')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Ouma (23'), Baidoo (47'), Baldursson (48'), Abdulai (58'), Zeneli (85')
Kaib (2'), Ouma (17'), Baldursson (36'), Henriksson (41')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Pafos FC and Elfsborg, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Pafos FC

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Elfsborg 3-0 Pafos
Thursday, July 11 at 6pm in Europa League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Elfsborg

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Hacken 3-5 Elfsborg
Sunday, July 14 at 3.30pm in Swedish Allsvenskan

We said: Pafos FC 2-1 Elfsborg (Elfsborg win 4-2 on aggregate)

 Pafos need to score three goals without reply just to take the game into extra time, but we cannot envisage such a scenario given that Elfsborg have netted 11 times in their last three matches. The Yellow Ones are not amazing on the road typically and could lose on the night, but the Swedes have a large enough lead on aggregate to cruise into the next stage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elfsborg win with a probability of 48.07%. A win for Pafos FC had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Elfsborg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Pafos FC win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.

Result
Pafos FCDrawElfsborg
28.77% (0.021999999999998 0.02) 23.16% (0.0030000000000001 0) 48.07% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 61.24% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.21%39.79% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.85% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)62.14% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Pafos FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.63% (0.015000000000001 0.02)26.37% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.47% (0.018999999999998 0.02)61.52% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Elfsborg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.17% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)16.82% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.19% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)46.81% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Pafos FC 28.77%
    Elfsborg 48.07%
    Draw 23.16%
Pafos FCDrawElfsborg
2-1 @ 7.02% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-0 @ 5.91% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 3.94% (0.004 0)
3-1 @ 3.12% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.78% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 1.75% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-1 @ 1.04% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 28.77%
1-1 @ 10.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-2 @ 6.26% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-0 @ 4.44% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.65%
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 23.16%
1-2 @ 9.39% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-1 @ 7.91% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-2 @ 7.05% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 5.58% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
0-3 @ 4.19% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 3.72% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 2.49% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-4 @ 1.87% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.66% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 4.22%
Total : 48.07%

How you voted: Pafos vs Elfsborg

Pafos FC
49.2%
Draw
22.0%
Elfsborg
28.8%
59
Head to Head
Jul 11, 2024 6pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Elfsborg
3-0
Pafos
Zeneli (9'), Hult (59'), Frick (82')
Ouma (12'), Baldursson (90+5')

Melluso (26'), Jairo (38')
Melluso (57')
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