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Europa League
HJK logo
Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 17, 2023 at 5pm UK
Bolt Arena
Qarabag

HJK Helsinki
1 - 2
Qarabag

Hostikka (10')
Kouassivi-Benissan (14'), Keskinen (45+6'), Mahammadaliyev (75')
Kouassivi-Benissan (16')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Bayramov (45+3' pen.), Benzia (55')
Mahammadaliyev (83'), Romao (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between HJK Helsinki and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

HJK Helsinki

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Qarabag 2-1 HJK Helsinki
Thursday, August 10 at 5pm in Europa League

Qarabag FK

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Qarabag 2-1 HJK Helsinki
Thursday, August 10 at 5pm in Europa League
TeamGoals scoredAvg per gameTop scorer
1HJK Helsinki311.63Radulovic
2Oulu301.58Coffey
3KuPS271.42Nissila
4Inter Turku261.44Smith
5SJK261.37Moreno
6VPS241.26Godly Michael
7Haka221.16Lescano
8Honka180.95Bauque
9Mariehamn180.95Ngueukam
10KTP170.89Furtado
11Lahti160.89Alves
12Ilves150.79Pennanen

We said: HJK Helsinki 1-2 Qarabag FK (Qarabag FK to win 4-2 on aggregate)

 HJK Helsinki have no choice but to throw everything at Qarabag as they attempt to turn the tie around, but the hosts' attacking approach will likely leave them exposed at the back. With that in mind, we expect Qarabag to absorb a fair amount of pressure early on before picking their moments to put the contest out of HJK's reach. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Qarabag FK in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Qarabag FK.

Result
HJK HelsinkiDrawQarabag FK
35.35% (-0.89 -0.89) 27.31% (-0.336 -0.34) 37.35% (1.226 1.23)
Both teams to score 49.9% (1.014 1.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.37% (1.279 1.28)55.63% (-1.278 -1.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.21% (1.032 1.03)76.79% (-1.032 -1.03)
HJK Helsinki Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.03% (0.078000000000003 0.08)29.97% (-0.077999999999999 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.92% (0.092999999999996 0.09)66.08% (-0.091000000000008 -0.09)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.25% (1.371 1.37)28.75% (-1.37 -1.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.41% (1.676 1.68)64.59% (-1.676 -1.68)
Score Analysis
    HJK Helsinki 35.34%
    Qarabag FK 37.35%
    Draw 27.31%
HJK HelsinkiDrawQarabag FK
1-0 @ 10.38% (-0.5 -0.5)
2-1 @ 7.8% (-0.053 -0.05)
2-0 @ 6.26% (-0.287 -0.29)
3-1 @ 3.13% (-0.015 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.51% (-0.109 -0.11)
3-2 @ 1.95% (0.064 0.06)
4-1 @ 0.94% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 35.34%
1-1 @ 12.94% (-0.11 -0.11)
0-0 @ 8.62% (-0.434 -0.43)
2-2 @ 4.86% (0.149 0.15)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 27.31%
0-1 @ 10.74% (-0.12 -0.12)
1-2 @ 8.07% (0.232 0.23)
0-2 @ 6.69% (0.178 0.18)
1-3 @ 3.35% (0.218 0.22)
0-3 @ 2.78% (0.176 0.18)
2-3 @ 2.02% (0.136 0.14)
1-4 @ 1.05% (0.105 0.11)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 37.35%

How you voted: HJK Helsinki vs Qarabag

HJK Helsinki
26.6%
Draw
19.1%
Qarabag FK
54.3%
94
Head to Head
Aug 10, 2023 5pm
Third Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Qarabag
2-1
HJK Helsinki
Andrade (55'), Juninho (85')
Olusanya (77')
Radulovic (30')
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