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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 72.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 11.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 3-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.73%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
72.7% | 15.45% | 11.85% |
Both teams to score 59.51% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.55% | 28.45% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.69% | 49.31% |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.2% | 6.8% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
74.92% | 25.08% |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.85% | 36.15% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.07% | 72.93% |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 9.04% 2-0 @ 8.89% 3-1 @ 8.1% 3-0 @ 7.96% 1-0 @ 6.61% 4-1 @ 5.45% 4-0 @ 5.35% 3-2 @ 4.12% 5-1 @ 2.93% 5-0 @ 2.88% 4-2 @ 2.77% 5-2 @ 1.49% 6-1 @ 1.31% 6-0 @ 1.29% 4-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.57% Total : 72.7% | 1-1 @ 6.73% 2-2 @ 4.6% 0-0 @ 2.46% 3-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 0.27% Total : 15.45% | 1-2 @ 3.42% 0-1 @ 2.5% 2-3 @ 1.56% 0-2 @ 1.27% 1-3 @ 1.16% Other @ 1.93% Total : 11.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |