England Under-20s' bid for World Cup glory continues on Wednesday evening, as Italy Under-20s lie in wait for their last-16 battle at the Estadio Unico Diego Armando Maradona in La Plata.
The Three Lions topped Group E to seal a straightforward route into the knockout rounds, while the Azzurrini finished second behind Brazil in Group D.
Match preview
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Already assured of a top-two finish in Group E before rounding off the section against Iraq, England laboured to a drab goalless stalemate on Sunday, albeit one that proved inconsequential in their bid to qualify for the last 16 as group winners.
Ian Foster's men - who also missed a penalty at the weekend - squeaked by Tunisia 1-0 before coming up trumps in a five-goal spectacular with Uruguay - prevailing 3-2 - to keep their hopes of a second Under-20 World Cup crown alive following their memorable triumph in the 2017 edition.
Despite their status as defending champions, the Three Lions failed to qualify for the tournament four years ago but are well on their way to righting the wrongs of 2019, having reached the knockout rounds for just the sixth time in their history.
Finishing one point clear of Uruguay in Group E, England's meagre tally of four goals was the joint-lowest of the six section winners alongside Gambia, but Foster's men have strung together a 10-game unbeaten streak in all competitions since a 2-0 loss to Poland in the Under-20 Elite League last March.
While England were able to take their foot off the gas in their final group game, Italy had it all to do during their encounter with the Dominican Republic after a mixed start to proceedings in Group D.
The Cesare Casadei-inspired Azzurrini put Brazil to the sword 3-2 in their opening encounter, but a 2-0 loss to Nigeria on matchday two left Italy three points adrift of their African counterparts, and they could ill-afford any slip-ups against the section's whipping boys Dominican Republic.
Thanks to another two goals from Casadei either side of a Giuseppe Ambrosino effort, Carmine Nunziata's side ran out comfortable 3-0 winners to sneak into second spot, pipping Nigeria - who qualified as one of the best third-placed teams - to a top-two berth by just one goal.
Following a few scattered quarter-final appearances and a spate of failed qualification periods, Italy have begun to make a name for themselves at Under-20 level, reaching the semi-finals in both of the 2017 and 2019 tournaments and taking the bronze medal home in the former.
The Azzurrini's record against England leaves a lot to be desired, though, as they are winless in their previous six meetings with the Three Lions, losing their first four showdowns before most recently holding on for a pair of 2-2 and 1-1 draws in the Under-20 Elite League, and a quarter-final with either Colombia or Slovakia will await the winners of Wednesday's intriguing encounter.
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Team News
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With their top-two standing in Group E already rubber-stamped, England boss Foster did not hesitate to ring the changes, and the Three Lions coach will revert to a full-strength XI for the showdown in La Plata.
Coventry City duo Brooke Norton-Cuffy and Callum Doyle suffered a heartbreaking end to the Championship playoffs - losing the final on penalties to Luton Town - and it is unclear if either man will link up with the squad in time for the last-16 clash; the same also goes for Aston Villa's Aaron Ramsey after Middlesbrough's own failed exploits.
After giving both James Beadle and Teddy Sharman-Lowe a run-out against Iraq, Foster should recall Matthew Cox as his last line of defence, while highly-rated Bristol City starlet Alex Scott is set to return in the centre of the park.
Meanwhile, Italy boss Nunziata will be forced into a defensive rejig as centre-back Daniele Ghilardi picked up his second booking of the tournament against the Dominican Republic and will serve a one-game suspension in the last 16.
Inter Milan protege Alessandro Fontanarosa should fill in for Ghilardi in the heart of the backline, while Chelsea's Casadei - who tops the scoring charts with four goals to his name so far - should continue on the left-hand side of Italy's three-man midfield.
England Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Cox; Quansah, Edwards, Humphreys; Oyegoke, Gyabi, Scott, Vale; Devine; Joseph, Scarlett
Italy Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Desplanches; Zanotti, Guarino, Fontanarosa, Giovane; Prati, Faticanti, Casadei; Baldanzi; Pafundi, Ambrosino
We say: England Under-20s 2-1 Italy Under-20s
England's run in the group stages was a far less taxing affair than Italy's, and fresh legs on the Three Lions' end could just tip the scales in their favour.
While Foster was able to encase his star performers in bubble wrap on the final day, Italy boss Nunziata was not afforded such a luxury, and we expect England to come up trumps in a tense affair to book their spot in the quarters.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy Under-20s win with a probability of 40.83%. A win for England Under-20s had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy Under-20s win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest England Under-20s win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Italy Under-20s would win this match.
Ben Knapton
