Closing in on medals after coming through the group stage, Egypt and Paraguay will meet in Marseille on Friday, as they lock horns in the third Paris 2024 Olympics quarter-final.
Both booked a spot in the knockout phase by winning their final group game, and they now aim to take one step closer to the podium.
Match preview
© Imago
After already-qualified Spain decided to rotate their squad for Monday's clash in Group C, Egypt took full advantage to seize both victory and top spot.
Securing their place in the quarter-finals, the Pharaohs ran out 2-1 winners, with Ibrahim Adel bagging a brace in Bordeaux, following up his fine first-half strike with another just after the hour mark.
Though Samu Omorodion pulled one back late on, Egypt held on for the points that confirmed first place, which seemed unlikely after they kicked off their campaign with a frustrating 0-0 draw against the Dominican Republic.
Having subsequently responded by beating Uzbekistan 1-0, thanks to a crucial goal from Ahmed Nabil Koka, a second straight success sees Rogerio Micale's men in contention to claim a first football medal in their nation's history.
Egypt qualified for Paris 2024 by finishing runners-up to Morocco at the most recent Under-23 Africa Cup of Nations, after they lost in the Tokyo 2020 quarter-finals to Brazil, who went on to claim gold.
Only two wins now separate the Pharaohs from a guaranteed medal, but the next team in their way showed great character to bounce back from a chastening opening defeat at these Games.
© Imago
Paraguay found themselves on the wrong end of a 5-0 thrashing in their Olympics opener last week, when Japan simply crushed their 10-man South American counterparts in Bordeaux.
However, undeterred by that setback, La Albirroja showed great mettle to win a thrilling contest against Israel, with a 4-2 win putting them back in the mix for a place in the knockout phase.
Monday's tense 1-0 victory over Mali - earned by an early Marcelo Fernandez goal - then put Paraguay into the last eight for the first time since Athens 2004, where they memorably reached the final.
Veteran coach Carlos Jara Saguier led his nation to the silver medal on that occasion, and having been re-appointed in October last year, the 73-year-old now aims to emulate that achievement two decades on.
Despite making little impact at senior international level, Paraguay have now advanced to the latter stages in all three of their appearances at the Olympics, and Saguier's squad will try to take inspiration from their predecessors on Friday.
Team News
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After an impressive win last time out, Rogerio Micale is expected to keep faith in a front three of Osama Faisal, Ibrahim Adel and Zamalek winger Ahmed Sayed, more commonly known as Zizo.
Adel was the star of Egypt's Under-23 AFCON campaign and not only scored twice against Spain but also versus Iraq in their final warm-up fixture.
Ahmed Nabil Koka recovered from a foot injury that ruled him out of the first game to join captain Mohamed Elneny in midfield on Monday, and the latter should again occupy a holding position just in front of the Pharaohs' back four.
Meanwhile, Paraguay will turn to Libertad forward Marcelo Fernandez for inspiration at Stade Velodrome, following his haul of three goals in the last two games.
Wilder Viera was sent off in La Albirroja's opening defeat, then after serving a suspension found himself dropped to the bench against Mali, but it remains to be seen who will support Brighton & Hove Albion star Julio Enciso and Huracan striker Marcelo Perez up front.
Egypt possible starting lineup:
Alaa; Fayed, Abdelmeguid, Eid, El-Debes; Elneny; Shehata, Kouka; Sayed, Faisal, Adel
Paraguay possible starting lineup:
R. Fernandez; Rivas, De Jesus, Balbuena, Nunez; M. Fernandez, M. Gomez, D. Gomez, Caballero; Enciso, Perez
We say: Egypt 3-1 Paraguay
Boasting an incisive attack, Egypt have put together a good run of results and should carry that momentum into this quarter-final, where they can take advantage of a Paraguayan defence that shipped seven goals during the group stage.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt Under-23s win with a probability of 64.1%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Paraguay Under-23s had a probability of 15.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt Under-23s win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Paraguay Under-23s win it was 0-1 (4.8%).
Jonathan O'Shea
