Derby County welcome Swansea City to Pride Park on Wednesday night as they go in search of a result that will lift them out of the bottom three.

The Rams were unable to capitalise on their dominance against Stoke City last time out, drawing 0-0, while Swansea City turned over rivals Cardiff City with a 2-0 win away from home.

Match preview

Derby County's Wayne Rooney pictured in October 2020 © Reuters

Wayne Rooney claimed that Derby were denied the chance to secure a first home win in the Championship since June after referee Andy Woolmer refused to award them a penalty.

Since taking charge, Rooney has led his Derby side to four draws and one win in his first five games, which will surely be viewed as footsteps in the right direction for Derby fans who have watched their side struggle for the majority of the season so far.

The Rams' defensive record has seen a vast improvement, and this fixture will be an opportunity for them to keep their fourth straight clean sheet for the first time since February 2018.

Rooney and his players will also be buoyed by the fact that Derby have not lost to Swansea in their last six matches, consisting of three wins and three draws.

Swansea City manager Steve Cooper pictured on November 3, 2020 © Reuters

Swansea currently sit third in the table, four points adrift of leaders Norwich City, after claiming three wins and only one loss from their last five fixtures.

Steve Cooper and his men left Cardiff with a win and the bragging rights, securing an important victory over their South Wales rivals that will no doubt lift the city's mood.

As mentioned, Swansea's form against their midweek opponents is not the strongest, with only one win in their last eight away league games against Derby, winning 1-0 in February 2010 under Paulo Sousa.

Much like Derby, Swansea have relied on their defensive strengths to see them through. The Welsh side have not conceded more than twice in any of their last 31 league games since a 4-4 away draw at Hull in February, conceding just 22 goals across those 31 matches.

At the other end, Cooper will be hoping that Jamal Lowe can build on his brace against Cardiff, after he went without a goal in the 10 games prior to the derby.

Derby County Championship form: LDDWDD

Swansea City Championship form: DWLWDW

Team News

Derby County's Graeme Shinnie celebrates after scoring against Bournemouth on October 31, 2020 © Reuters

Graeme Shinnie should return to the starting lineup for Derby, after serving a one-match suspension.

Curtis Davies will likely miss out after suffering an Achilles injury against Brentford last Wednesday.

For the Swans, defender Tivonge Rushesha is set to miss the rest of the season because of a cruciate ligament injury.

On-loan Wolves midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White is close to returning to training after two months out with a foot problem but will not be available on Wednesday night.

Derby County possible starting lineup:
Marshall; McDonald, Wisdom, Clarke, Forsyth; Bielik, Shinnie; Lawrence, Knight, Jozwiak; Kazim-Richards

Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Woodman; Naughton, Cabango, Latibeaudiere; Roberts, Smith, Grimes, Bidwell; Dhanda; Ayew, Lowe

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We say: Derby County 1-2 Swansea City

Cooper spoke of Swansea reaching the peak of their powers against Cardiff on Saturday, and we expect them to continue that form against a Derby side still struggling for rhythm. We expect the Swans to prove too strong for Rooney's men, taking all three points back to Wales.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swansea City win with a probability of 45.65%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Derby County had a probability of 26.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.99%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Derby County win it was 1-0 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.