Dallas need a result of some sort to have any hope of advancing out of their Leagues Cup group when they host Juarez on Wednesday at Toyota Stadium.
It will be the opening game of the tournament for the club from Ciudad, who were eliminated in the round of 32 last year, while the Toros lost their opener this year, 2-1, versus St Louis City.
Match preview
© Reuters
That first away win continues to elude interim manager Peter Luccin, whose side are still winless as the visitors this year across all competitions.
Eight of their 11 defeats in MLS this season have been by a single goal, two of which occurred at home, most recently against FC Cincinnati in late June (1-0).
Their defeat to St Louis was the first time this club had ever lost within 90 minutes in the Leagues Cup and the first for them in group play.
Under Luccin, the Toros have been a lot sharper at home in recent times, currently on a three-match winning run in MLS, scoring eight goals over that stretch.
Dallas have not lost in 2024 at home when netting multiple times, dropping points in only one instance, playing to a 3-3 draw with Real Salt Lake in late May.
The Toros boast a 100% record versus Liga MX sides in this competition, defeating Necaxa at home in the group phase last year (3-0) and claiming a 2-1 triumph in the round of 32 versus Mazatlan.
© Imago
Los Bravos have continuously missed opportunities to grab points in the 2024 Apertura campaign, losing three successive domestic affairs by a single goal.
In three of their four league fixtures on the current Apertura campaign, Mauricio Barbieri's men have scored the opening goal but failed to win, dropping eight points.
Barbieri lost his only away match in charge of this team on matchday three of the domestic season versus Toluca (3-2), though this team have won two of their last three games as the visitors in Liga MX.
At the 2023 Leagues Cup, Juarez lost their only match in which they scored first, defeating Mazatlan on penalties, while their lone triumph came at Q2 Stadium, coming from behind to defeat Austin FC (3-1).
Juarez are unbeaten in five of their last six matches across all competitions when netting multiple times, with their only defeat occurring against Toluca.
At this tournament, they have one win and one defeat versus MLS opponents, as Los Angeles FC annihilated them in the round of 32 last year, 7-1.
Team News
© Reuters
Against St Louis a few days ago, Dallas were missing Asier Illarremendi due to a sore ankle, Liam Fraser was unavailable with a leg problem, Patrickson Delgado is dealing with a knee issue and Jesus Ferreira was sidelined because of a hamstring strain.
Paxton Pomykal will not return this season after suffering a serious knee injury, Alan Velasco is recovering from a torn ACL, while Geovane Jesus is also on the mend after tearing his ACL.
Their only goal on Saturday came courtesy of Sam Junqua, which gave his side the lead after 18 minutes before St Louis drew even eight minutes later.
Do not expect to see Diego Valoyes feature for Juarez as he is recovering from a sore hamstring, while Manuel Castro has an ACL injury that will likely keep him out of the lineup for the remainder of the season.
Meanwhile, Bryan Romero and Jesus Venegas are serious doubts for the Mexicans on Wednesday as they both have knee injuries.
Aitor Garcia was their leading scorer at this tournament last year, netting a brace in their group-stage victory over the Verde-and-Black.
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Paes; Ibeagha, Tafari, Farfan; Twumasi, Ntsabeleng, Sainte, Junqua; Arriola, Farrington; Kamungo
Juarez possible starting lineup:
Jurado; Edson, Mosquera, Calvo, Orquin; Gonzalez, D. Garcia; Torres, Hurtado, A. Garcia; Zaldivar
We say: Dallas 1-1 Juarez (Dallas wins on penalties)
The Mexicans have done an excellent job at keeping their matches close but cannot seem to muster a quality attack when needed to put them over the top.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dallas win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Juarez had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dallas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.55%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Juarez win was 1-2 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
