Crotone host Benevento in Serie A on Sunday, with both sides hoping to bounce back from league defeats last weekend.
I Pitagorici have won two of their last three home games, while the visitors have been victorious in their last two away matches in the top flight.
Match preview
© Reuters
Crotone's struggles continued last weekend as they came up short against Hella Verona, losing 2-1 away from home,
Giovanni Stroppa's side have now suffered 12 defeats this campaign, more than any other side in Serie A and are currently bottom of the table, five points adrift of safety.
One of Crotone's main issues this season has been their defensive frailties, which has seen them concede 40 goals from their 17 league matches, more than any other side in the division.
A worrying statistic for them is that only three of the previous 16 sides to have conceded as many goals at this stage of the season have avoided relegation, with the most recent team to do so being Pro Patria back in 1950-51.
Stroppa is hoping that his side can take confidence from two of their previous three home matches – which they won against Spezia and Parma in December – and match those performances this weekend.
Victory on Sunday would likely see them remain at the foot of the table, level on points with Parma and Torino if they both failed to secure points this weekend.
Benevento lost their fifth home match of the campaign last Saturday when they were thrashed 4-1 at home to Atalanta.
Marco Sau scored his second goal in as many matches to give the hosts hope of a comeback, but the visitors, who dominated the match throughout, scored three times in the final 20 minutes to take away all three points.
Despite defeat, manager Filippo Inzaghi is very satisfied with where his side are placed in the top flight, with six wins and three draws after 17 matches helping Benevento climb to 10th in the table.
Benevento are expected to play for set pieces this weekend, a tactic which has benefitted them throughout the campaign. The Stregoni have scored 45% of their goals in Serie A via set pieces – the highest percentage of any top-flight side – and they face a Crotone outfit that have the second highest percentage, scoring 41% of their goals from dead ball situations.
After victories on the road against Udinese and Cagliari, Benevento would secure their third successive away triumph and move 12 points clear of the relegation zone with a win on Sunday.
Crotone Serie A form: DLWLLL
Benevento Serie A form: DWWLWL
Team News
© Reuters
Crotone midfielder Luca Marrone (thigh) and defender Salvatore Molina (arm fracture) are both injured, while left-back Arkadiusz Reca misses out due to suspension.
Central defender Koffi Djidji is expected to start the match alongside Vladimir Golemic and Sebastiano Luperto in the back three.
Benevento boss Inzaghi has several absentees from his squad heading into Sunday's match.
Gaetano Letizia (thigh) and Luca Caldirola (knee) are ruled out with injuries, as are Gabriele Moncini and Nicolas Viola, who are both suffering with ankle problems.
Midfielder Pascale Schiattarella is unavailable after testing positive for coronavirus, while defender Alessandro Tuia remains doubtful.
One positive however is that Iago Falque and Andreas Tello are expected to be fit to make the bench and could feature this weekend.
Crotone possible starting lineup:
Cordaz; Djidji, Golemic, Luperto; Rispoli, Eduardo, Zanellato, Pereira, Vulic; Simy, Messias
Benevento possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Improta, Glik, Barba, Foulon; Hetemaj, Dabo, Ionita; Insigne, Sau; Lapadula
We say: Crotone 1-2 Benevento
None of the last 10 Serie A matches between newly-promoted sides have ended in a draw, with the home team winning on eight occasions. However, as Crotone have not been able to resolve their defensive frailties, Benevento could secure all three points on Sunday.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benevento win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benevento win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Crotone win was 1-0 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
