Coppa Italia | Round of 16

Jan 10, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Inter Milan
2 - 1
Parma

Martinez (88'), Acerbi (110')
Dimarco (105')

FT
(aet)

Juric (38')
Bernabe (45+1'), Camara (79')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Coppa Italia clash between Inter Milan and Parma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Inter Milan

All competitions

Last Game: Monza 2-2 Inter Milan
Saturday, January 7 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Parma

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Venezia 2-2 Parma
Monday, December 26 at 2pm in Serie B

Goals
for

Top scorers

Despite Inzaghi being likely to make selection changes en masse, we expect Inter to have too much strength in depth for their Serie B opponents. Parma's form has been relatively patchy of late, and it is likely to be one game too far for them in terms of their Coppa Italian run. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 53.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Parma had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.27%), while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (6.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
Inter Milan	Draw	Parma
53.45% ( -0.31)	23.74% ( 0.06)	22.8% ( 0.25)

Both teams to score 53.32% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.45% (

0.02)

47.55% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.24% (

0.01)

69.76% (

-0.01)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.28% (

-0.11)

17.72% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.61% (

-0.19)

48.38% (

0.19)

Parma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.8% (

0.24)

35.2% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.05% (

0.25)

71.95% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Inter Milan 53.45%

Parma 22.8%

Draw 23.74%

Inter Milan	Draw	Parma
1-0 @ 10.79% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.34% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.43% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.33% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0) Other @ 3.59% Total : 53.45%	1-1 @ 11.27% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.24% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.74%	0-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 5.88% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3.4% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.77% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02) Other @ 2% Total : 22.8%