Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 51.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 22.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.