Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 36.17%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 36.09% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (10.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.