Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (5.77%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
-2.69) 
0.39) 
