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Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 14, 2021 at 6pm UK
Bakcell Arena
Dinamo Tbilisi

Neftchi Baku
2 - 1
Dinamo Tbilisi

Mahmudov (58' pen.), Alasgarov (68')
Daniel Meza Colli (22'), Mbodj (55'), Lawal (64'), Buludov (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Radin (51')
Radin (45'), Gabedava (52'), Kutsia (64'), Gbegnon (71'), Morchiladze (83'), Iashvili (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Neftchi Baku and Dinamo Tbilisi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 47.41%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 1-2 (7.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Neftchi Baku in this match.

Result
Neftchi BakuDrawDinamo Tbilisi
47.41%23.47%29.12%
Both teams to score 60.38%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.97%41.02%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.58%63.41%
Neftchi Baku Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.45%17.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.92%48.08%
Dinamo Tbilisi Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.23%26.77%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.95%62.04%
Score Analysis
    Neftchi Baku 47.41%
    Dinamo Tbilisi 29.12%
    Draw 23.47%
Neftchi BakuDrawDinamo Tbilisi
2-1 @ 9.37%
1-0 @ 8.17%
2-0 @ 7.11%
3-1 @ 5.44%
3-0 @ 4.13%
3-2 @ 3.58%
4-1 @ 2.37%
4-0 @ 1.8%
4-2 @ 1.56%
Other @ 3.88%
Total : 47.41%
1-1 @ 10.77%
2-2 @ 6.18%
0-0 @ 4.7%
3-3 @ 1.58%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 23.47%
1-2 @ 7.1%
0-1 @ 6.19%
0-2 @ 4.08%
1-3 @ 3.12%
2-3 @ 2.71%
0-3 @ 1.79%
1-4 @ 1.03%
Other @ 3.1%
Total : 29.12%

How you voted: Neftchi Baku vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Neftchi Baku
56.9%
Draw
29.4%
Dinamo Tbilisi
13.7%
51
Head to Head
Jul 7, 2021 5pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Dinamo Tbilisi
1-2
Neftchi Baku
Marusic (36')
Kardava (84')
Alasgarov (23'), Mahmudov (57' pen.)
Lawal (77')
rhs 2.0
Euro 2024 fixtures header
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Tuesday, July 2
 
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Friday, July 5
 
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Tables header RHS

Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

Group B

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Spain Spain33009
Q Italy Italy31114
3 Croatia Croatia30212
4 Albania national flag Albania30121

Group C

TeamPWDLPTS
Q England flag England31205
Q Denmark Denmark30303
Q Slovenia Slovenia30303
4 Serbia Serbia30212

Group D

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Austria Austria32016
Q France France31205
Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Romania Romania31114
Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121


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