MX23RW : Saturday, November 23 20:24:39| >> :120:5588:5588:
Lugano
Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Jul 23, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Stadio di Cornaredo

Lugano
3 - 4
Fenerbahce

El Wafi (4'), Bislimi (64'), Valenzuela (90+4')
El Wafi (29'), Papadopoulos (59'), Bottani (69'), Grgic (71'), Zanotti (77')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Dzeko (45+1' pen., 46', 67'), Kadioglu (74')
Soyuncu (18'), Tadic (45+3'), Oosterwolde (70'), Tosun (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Lugano and Fenerbahce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lugano 2-1 Grasshopper
Saturday, July 20 at 5pm in Swiss Super League
Last Game: Fenerbahce 5-1 Hull City
Thursday, July 18 at 6.30pm in Club Friendlies 1

We said: Lugano 1-3 Fenerbahce

Under the management of a proven winner in Europe, Fener are likely to take a first-leg lead back to Istanbul: Lugano's defensive record was not impressive last season, when they also made a tame exit from the Conference League. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenerbahce win with a probability of 58.16%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 20.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fenerbahce win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.46%) and 0-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Lugano win it was 2-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fenerbahce would win this match.

Result
LuganoDrawFenerbahce
20.86% (-5.134 -5.13) 20.98% (-2.934 -2.93) 58.16% (8.069 8.07)
Both teams to score 59.99% (3.707 3.71)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
62.56% (7.843 7.84)37.44% (-7.841 -7.84)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.34% (7.961 7.96)59.66% (-7.959 -7.96)
Lugano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.7% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)31.3% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.35% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)67.65% (0.063999999999993 0.06)
Fenerbahce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.32% (5.46 5.46)12.69% (-5.457 -5.46)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.12% (10.232 10.23)38.88% (-10.23 -10.23)
Score Analysis
    Lugano 20.86%
    Fenerbahce 58.16%
    Draw 20.98%
LuganoDrawFenerbahce
2-1 @ 5.53% (-1.016 -1.02)
1-0 @ 4.61% (-1.982 -1.98)
2-0 @ 2.68% (-1.157 -1.16)
3-2 @ 2.21% (0.044 0.04)
3-1 @ 2.14% (-0.397 -0.4)
3-0 @ 1.04% (-0.451 -0.45)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 20.86%
1-1 @ 9.52% (-1.728 -1.73)
2-2 @ 5.71% (0.122 0.12)
0-0 @ 3.97% (-1.697 -1.7)
3-3 @ 1.52% (0.289 0.29)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 20.98%
1-2 @ 9.83% (0.223 0.22)
0-2 @ 8.46% (0.205 0.21)
0-1 @ 8.2% (-1.477 -1.48)
1-3 @ 6.77% (1.3 1.3)
0-3 @ 5.82% (1.126 1.13)
2-3 @ 3.93% (0.75 0.75)
1-4 @ 3.49% (1.16 1.16)
0-4 @ 3.01% (1.001 1)
2-4 @ 2.03% (0.672 0.67)
1-5 @ 1.44% (0.646 0.65)
0-5 @ 1.24% (0.557 0.56)
Other @ 3.94%
Total : 58.16%

How you voted: Lugano vs Fenerbahce

Lugano
8.1%
Draw
6.5%
Fenerbahce
85.4%
123
rhs 2.0
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