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Champions League header

Champions League
Atletico Madrid logo
Champions League | League Stage
Oct 23, 2024 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
Lille

Atletico
1 - 3
Lille

Alvarez (8')
Galan (17'), Simeone (73'), Gimenez (78'), Witsel (88')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Zhegrova (61'), David (74' pen., 89')
Toure (44'), Meunier (78')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Atletico Madrid and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Atletico 3-1 Leganes
Sunday, October 20 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Lille

All competitions
Champions League
Last Game: Monaco 0-0 Lille
Friday, October 18 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Lille

 Lille have lost the ball in their defensive third more often than any other side in the Champions League this season (20), while only two teams have won possession in that part of the pitch more often than Atletico Madrid, suggesting the hosts can make some high turnovers. While Atleti are still struggling at the back, they are also a formidable prospect on home turf, and their visitors do not tend to travel well. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 46.65%. A win for Lille had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.23%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Lille win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawLille
46.65% (0.061999999999998 0.06) 25.65% (0.025000000000002 0.03) 27.7% (-0.087 -0.09)
Both teams to score 52.12% (-0.136 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.57% (-0.14700000000001 -0.15)51.43% (0.146 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.76% (-0.128 -0.13)73.24% (0.127 0.13)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.96% (-0.034000000000006 -0.03)22.04% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.63% (-0.050000000000004 -0.05)55.37% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.85% (-0.146 -0.15)33.15% (0.146 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.25% (-0.159 -0.16)69.75% (0.15900000000001 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 46.65%
    Lille 27.7%
    Draw 25.64%
Atletico MadridDrawLille
1-0 @ 11.05% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.23% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-0 @ 8.36% (0.032 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.65% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-0 @ 4.21% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.57% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.76% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.59% (0.0029999999999999 0)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.27%
Total : 46.65%
1-1 @ 12.19% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 7.31% (0.043 0.04)
2-2 @ 5.09% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.64%
0-1 @ 8.07% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
1-2 @ 6.73% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-2 @ 4.45% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.48% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.87% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.64% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 27.7%

How you voted: Atletico vs Lille

Atletico Madrid
84.6%
Draw
11.7%
Lille
3.6%
247
rhs 2.0
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