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[monks data]
Carlisle United
League Two | Gameweek 39
Mar 26, 2022 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
Bristol Rovers

Carlisle
1 - 0
Bristol Rovers

Dennis (72')
Armer (65'), Dickenson (90+6'), Dennis (90+6'), Patrick (90+7')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Taylor (90+6'), Saunders (90+8')

Preview: Carlisle United vs. Bristol Rovers - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Carlisle United and Bristol Rovers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two teams at opposite ends of the League Two table will meet on Saturday when 18th-placed Carlisle United welcome Bristol Rovers to Brunton Park.

The hosts shall be looking to continue pushing away from the relegation zone, while the Pirates have the potential of moving into the automatic promotion spots, depending on other results.


Match preview

Coach of England U19s Paul Simpson on July 26, 2018© Reuters

Carlisle United have drastically improved their form recently, having only lost once in their previous six outings, which has allowed them to climb out of the relegation zone.

New manager Paul Simpson has made a serious impact since taking over, guiding the club away from the threat of relegation, as they now sit 12 points ahead of the bottom two.

During their recent run, Carlisle have won five matches, keeping two clean sheets while scoring at least two goals in all the games they have won, which is a stark contrast to how they had been performing.

The Blues had only won six games all season until this period, which highlights the major difference, and that is something the squad will be looking to continue in the run-in.

The club defeated Barrow in their most recent outing, in a game that finished 2-1 with goals from Jordan Gibson and Kristian Dennis, which immediately got them back to winning ways after a defeat.

Bristol Rovers' Alfie Kilgour celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on January 9, 2021© Reuters

The visitors are also in fine form at the moment, having been victorious in their previous four matches, and they have kept three clean sheets in that period, showcasing their defensive qualities.

Bristol Rovers have only lost six times on the road this season, and that will no doubt be boosting their confidence heading into this fixture where they are away from home again.

Their most recent outing saw them playing outside of their stadium as they travelled to Northampton Town, and they set the standard immediately when Harry Anderson scored in the first minute.

The game finished in that manner, with the Pirates shutting the door immediately, which is something they will be hoping to continue doing this weekend.

Bristol Rovers did not concede a goal when they met Carlisle earlier this season, winning that meeting 3-0 through goals from Antony Evans, Sam Nicholson and Harvey Saunders, a result they would like to repeat.

Carlisle United League Two form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Bristol Rovers League Two form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Bristol Rovers manager Joey Barton pictured in May 2021© Reuters

Brennan Dickenson was able to start in midweek, and that was only the second time that had happened since his injury, which proves that he is getting himself back to full fitness.

However, the Blues will be missing Jamie Devitt, who is not set to play again this season due to a hamstring strain, which is something that Simpson will need to adapt with.

Joey Barton has named an unchanged starting lineup across Bristol Rovers' four last games, and it is unlikely he will make any alterations here unless a late fitness issue crops up.

This should see the Gas setup with a 4-1-4-1 formation as Aaron Collins leads the line for the team, and Paul Coutts works as the defensive midfielder, sitting in front of the back four.

Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Howard; Riley, Simeu, Feeney, Mellish, Armer; Dickenson, Guy, Gibson; Dennis, Patrick

Bristol Rovers possible starting lineup:
Belshaw; Hoole, Taylor, Connolly, Anderton; Coutts, H. Anderson, Evans, Finley, E. Anderson; Collins


SM words green background

We say: Carlisle United 0-1 Bristol Rovers

Both teams head into this match in vastly different league positions, but they are in great form, picking up results on a regular basis, while they have defended well.

They have each been picking up clean sheets as of late, and that could lead to this match being quite a closely-contested one that the visitors will likely just edge.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Carlisle vs Bristol Rovers

Carlisle United
33.3%
Draw
22.9%
Bristol Rovers
43.8%
48
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Coach of England U19s Paul Simpson on July 26, 2018
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