Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 31.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.62%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.