Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 33.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.24%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 1-0 (10.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.