Bahia host struggling Sport Recife in Brasileiro on Sunday, hoping to put a stop to their recent poor run of form.
The Tricolor have lost their last four matches in all competitions, but their opponents are only outside of the relegation zone on goal difference.
Match preview
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Back-to-back defeats to Atletico Mineiro, in the league and then the cup, have got Bahia stuck in a rut that has halted a promising start to the campaign.
After finishing 14th last season, they beat Santos 3-0 in their first Brasileiro game of 2021, quickly finding their stride to place inside the top four little over a month ago.
However, Dado Cavalcanti's side have now dropped to ninth and were thrashed 5-0 by Flamengo in their last home match.
Only bottom club Chapecoense (24) have conceded more goals than Bahia (22) so far this season, but they do boast Brasileiro's joint-top scorer – seven-goal star Gilberto.
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Despite sitting 16th, Sport Recife have the fourth-best defensive record in the league, conceding only 11 goals in 13 games; their 0-0 draw with Ceara last time out was their fifth clean sheet of the season.
However at the other end, Umberto Louzer's side have found the back of the net just seven times – only Gremio (six) have scored fewer.
Results have suffered as a result and Leao have only won one of their last nine games and have picked up a mere two league victories all season.
A 1-0 win over America Mineiro in their last away game, courtesy of Paulinho's 86th-minute strike, was their first win in seven attempts on the road in the league in 2021.
Sport Recife won both meetings between the two sides last season, but Bahia won 4-0 in the group stages of this year's Copa do Nordeste, which they went on to win.
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Team News
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Bahia should recall goalkeeper Matheus Teixeira, defender Ligger and captain Rodriguinho after the trio were rested in the cup in midweek.
It is now six months since Indio Ramirez last took to the field, but the midfielder is hopeful of returning to training soon after rupturing his ACL.
Colombian compatriot Hugo Rodallega is not yet ready to play following a move from Denizlispor, likewise fellow new signing Lucas Mugni.
For Sport Recife, Marcao and Gustavo both picked up their third yellow cards of the campaign against Ceara so are suspended for this fixture.
Andre is the only player in the club's squad that has scored more than one Brasileiro goal this season (he has two) and could be recalled to the starting lineup.
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Teixeira; Paraiba, Conti, Ligger, Bahia; Galdezani, De Lucca, Jonas; Rossi, Gilberto, Rodriguinho
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Hayner, Thyere, Sabino, Chico; Welison, Ronaldo; Paulinho, Lopes, Everaldo; Andre
We say: Bahia 1-0 Sport Recife
This might be just the game that Bahia need to regain some confidence, as Sport Recife do not tend to score many goals and have struggled on the road in 2021. Of course Leao also have a fairly tight defence, so this could be a low-scoring affair.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 28.4% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.57%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 0-1 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
