Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Bodo/Glimt, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bodo/Glimt will travel to the AFAS Stadion for the second leg match of their round of 16 Europa Conference match against AZ Alkmaar, with a place in the quarter-finals on the line.

The visitors head into this game with a lead to protect, but with just one goal between them, the hosts will be confident that they can get back into the fixture.

Match preview

AZ Alkmaar's Zakaria Aboukhlal with teammate after the match in November 2020 © Reuters

AZ Alkmaar were defeated 2-1 in the first leg against Bodo/Glimt, with a 91st-minute penalty proving to be the difference between them on the day, which left the club frustrated.

Away from home, the hosts were able to open up the scoring through Amahl Pellegrino, but Zakaria Aboukhlal brought his team back into things until the very end, when Ola Solbakken converted from 12 yards.

The late goal could end up proving vital in this fixture, and Pascal Jansen's men were unable to respond when they competed at the weekend, suffering another loss, this time against FC Twente.

A second-half finish from Joshua Brenet was enough to separate the two teams on the day, and Alkmaar will now be keen to get themselves back to winning ways in midweek.

The squad will take confidence from the fact they are undefeated at home in Europe this season, not conceding a single goal during their three group games either, and repeating that form could be crucial.

Bodo/Glimt's Amahl Pellegrino celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates Mats Torbergsen on March 10, 2022 © Reuters

Bodo/Glimt will also take confidence from the fact that they have already defeated their opponents, and even though it was AZ Alkmaar who had the majority of the possession in that match, they were able to take the victory.

While the hosts have not lost at home this season in Europe, Kjetil Knutsen's team boasts a strong away record, having not lost a single game since the group stage.

Bodo/Glimt drew all three of their matches on the road before defeating Celtic on their turf 3-1, and the fact they already have the experience of going through a knockout stage in this competition, the squad will have the belief they can do it again.

The club have not played since the last meeting between the two teams, and that should lead to them having plenty of freshness on the field.

Offensively, Bodo/Glimt have been dominant as of late, scoring seven goals in the past three Europa Conference League matches, and that ability is something that could cause problems for Alkmaar.

AZ Alkmaar Europa Conference League form:

AZ Alkmaar form (all competitions):

Bodo/Glimt Europa Conference League form:

Bodo/Glimt form (all competitions):

Team News

Bodo/Glimt coach Kjetil Knutsen celebrates their first goal scored by Bodo/Glimt's Runar Espejord on February 17, 2022 © Reuters

Jelle Duin is out of action for the hosts due to a knee injury that he has previously undergone surgery for, while Fredrik Midtsjo has also been unavailable recently, and that is expected to be the case again.

Vangelis Pavlidis is expected to lead the line for Alkmaar in midweek, while he will be supported by three attacking midfielders behind him, which will add to the threat they provide.

Pellegrino will be hoping to continue his fine form in front of goal on Thursday, and he will be kept in the team, while Runar Espejord is expected to start up front.

Bodo/Glimt do not have any major injury concerns to worry about, and considering they have not played since the last meeting between these teams, they should be slightly fresher.

AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl-Jensen; Sugawara, Hatzidiakos, Martins Indi, Wijndal; Reijnders, Koopmeiners; Evjen, De Wit, Karlsson; Pavlidis

Bodo/Glimt possible starting lineup:
Khaikin; Sampsted, Moe, Hoibraten, Wembangomo; Vetlesen, Hagen, Saltnes, Pellegrino, Solbakken, Espejord

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We say: AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Bodo/Glimt

The first leg proved to be a closely-fought match, and that is likely to be the case once again, as there is not much to separate the teams in terms of quality.

However, the visitors have a lead to protect, and they are also working well in front of goal right now, which is something that should lead to them earning a place in the next round.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 47.21%. A win for Bodo/Glimt had a probability of 27.76% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Bodo/Glimt win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%).