The current basement dwellers in the Western Conference, Austin FC, hope to put a wrench in the playoff aspirations of Real Salt Lake when they welcome Claret and Cobalt to Q2 Stadium for the first time on Saturday.
In their previous MLS encounter, the Verde-and-Black fell 3-0 to the Colorado Rapids, while Salt Lake climbed further up the standings thanks to a dramatic 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Galaxy.
Match preview
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As their opening season in Major League Soccer begins to wind down, Austin have a chance to foil the playoff dreams of numerous sides in the weeks to come.
Though qualifying for the postseason is not technically impossible, Josh Wolff's side are 15 points back of that final spot with only seven games remaining, so it seems unlikely.
This team have played well in stretches over a number of 90-minute encounters but have usually been outclassed in the end by some experienced squads like they were on Wednesday against the Burgundy Boys.
Moving forward, Austin will want to show their fans that the club is heading in the right direction with a few more wins to end the year.
After starting their home campaign going scoreless in their first two contests, they have been a lot sharper in the final third lately, particularly at Q2 Stadium, having found the back of the net 13 times in their last six games.
Wednesday was only the third time that they had been shut out in their last 10 outings in the Texas capital, which has to be an encouraging step forward for this young team, who have failed to score in 11 total matches this year.
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Less than a week after an embarrassing 6-1 defeat to the Portland Timbers, Pablo Mastroeni saw his side shake off that loss with a strong showing against the Galaxy.
They have had to work hard to stay above the playoff line, but their resiliency has been evident throughout the year, and it is that mentality which currently sees them sitting five points above the eighth place Vancouver Whitecaps.
Salt Lake will need to put forth some better efforts on the road to remain in their current position or ideally move higher up the standings.
Claret and Cobalt have lost six of their last seven matches away from home, getting outscored 22-11 over that stretch.
Mastroeni appears to have a lot of faith in the depth of this team, inserting four RSL Academy products into the starting lineup on Wednesday.
Salt Lake won three of their four fixtures last month in the final 20 minutes of action, including a dramatic 95th-minute winner versus the Galaxy this week.
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Team News
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There were wholesale changes to the Verde-and-Black starting 11 on Wednesday, a sign that they may be playing for next season as Andrew Tarbell replaced Brad Stuver in goal, while Austin-born McKinze Gaines began as one of the team's central strikers.
Their second-leading goalscorer, who also leads them in assists, Cecilio Dominguez, has featured in every match for this expansion side, replacing Manny Perez in the second half on Wednesday.
Ulises Segura and Aaron Schoenfeld remain sidelined with left knee problems, while Danny Hoesen is enduring some recurring hip issues, Ben Sweat continues to miss time with an ACL injury, and Matt Besler has a concussion.
Salt Lake substitute Anderson Julio scored the winner against LA on a beautiful set-up from Damir Kreilach, who notched one himself late in the first half.
In the first meeting between these sides, Bobby Wood scored the lone goal and the Salt Lake back four of Aaron Herrera, Marcelo Silva, Toni Datkovic and Ashtone Morgan held Austin to just one shot on target.
Wood will not be available for this encounter as he is suspended, while Zack Farnsworth and Marcelo Silva all have undisclosed injuries.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Romana, Kleemann, Lima, Jimenez; Pereira, Pochettino, Dominguez, Gallagher; Gaines, Driussi
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; Herrera, Glad, Holt, Datkovic; Ruiz, Luiz, Besler; Rusnak; Kreilach, Rubin
We say: Austin FC 1-2 Real Salt Lake
Austin have improved their play at home while showing a lot more potency in the final third, but more often than not, Salt Lake seem to be able to do just enough to get by and we should expect them to do that again this weekend.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 45.96%. A win for Real Salt Lake had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.27%) and 2-0 (5.86%). The likeliest Real Salt Lake win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Austin FC in this match.
