Mainz 05 travel to Augsburg on Saturday as they look to secure their first points of the season and climb off the bottom of the Bundesliga table.

Meanwhile, Augsburg have already gained seven points from their opening five league matches but have recently suffered successive defeats to RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen.

Match preview

RB Leipzig's Lukas Klostermann and Mainz 05's Robin Quaison in action in May 2020 © Reuters

While Augsburg are experiencing one of their best starts to a Bundesliga campaign, it has been the exact opposite for Mainz.

Die Nullfunfer remain the only top flight side yet to pick up a single point after their first five league matches. This is the second time that Mainz have started a Bundesliga season with five defeats, also doing so under former boss Jurgen Klopp in the 2005-06 campaign.

Following their 4-1 loss at home to Stuttgart in September which resulted in the dismissal of head coach Achim Beierlorzer, Jan-Moritz Lichte has taken the reins and overseen a further three defeats, albeit with slight improvements to their performances.

With Mainz losing their first three games by a goal margin of two or more, Lichte's last two matches in charge have seen his side lose by only one goal after a narrow 1-0 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen was followed by a 3-2 home loss to Borussia Monchengladbach, where they led at one point in the match.

The key to Lichte's chances of turning things around this term will be the form of striker Jean-Philippe Mateta, who has had a hand in all four of Mainz's Bundesliga goals (three goals and one assist), including a brace against Monchengladbach.

With the next three matches against sides currently in the bottom half of the table, Mainz will be desperate to get results and move away from the drop zone.

Augsburg head coach Heiko Herrlich pictured on May 27, 2020 © Reuters

Heiko Herrlich will be pleased overall with how his side have started the 2020-21 campaign, although will have been disappointed with Augsburg's most recent results both home and away.

After previous victories over Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund as well as a goalless draw away at Wolfsburg, Augsburg have since lost 2-0 at home to RB Leipzig and 3-1 away to Bayer Leverkusen.

A consolation goal from Daniel Caligiuri saw the German winger net his second goal of the season, more than any other Augsburg player so far this campaign.

Herrlich has had a settled team this season with his squad understanding his demands and their responsibilities and is hoping that their previous two results will be just a minor blip in their early season form.

Die Fuggerstadter are to host a Mainz side that they have beaten in their last four competitive encounters at home and a win for Augsburg could see them move into the top half of the table, potentially as high as fourth.

Augsburg Bundesliga form: WWDLL
Augsburg form (all competitions): WWWDLL

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form: LLLLL
Mainz 05 form (all competitions): WLLLLL

Team News

Mainz players celebrate equalising against Koln on May 17, 2020 © Reuters

Midfielder Jan Moravek (muscular) and striker Alfred Finnbogason (thigh) remain sidelined for the hosts.

Ruben Vargas and Andre Hahn will both be competing for a place on the left side of a midfield four.

Forward Florian Niederlechner, who has yet to score this campaign, could keep his place in the starting lineup, although striker Fredrik Jensen will also be pushing to lead the line.

Mainz's versatile defender Jeremiah St Juste is likely to remain in the side at right-back with Luca Kilian playing alongside Moussa Niakhate at centre-half.

Lichte will look to striker Jean-Philippe Mateta to continue his goalscoring form with Dutch midfielder Jean-Paul Boetius playing just behind the Frenchman.

Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Iago; Caligiuri, Khedira, Gruezo, Vargas; Gregoritsch, Niederlechner

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St. Juste, Kilian, Niakhate, Brosinski; Latza, Kunde; Oztunali, Boetius, Burkardt; Mateta

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We say: Augsburg 2-1 Mainz 05

The visitors are desperate to end their poor run of form and will see this match against Augsburg, who have lost their previous two matches, as a good opportunity to record their first points of the campaign. However, Herrlich's side should have enough quality in the final third to break down a leaky Mainz defence and come out on top at the Augsburg Arena.

Top betting tip

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 30.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.25%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.