Atletico Madrid will travel to relegation-threatened Real Valladolid on Saturday evening knowing that a victory would guarantee themselves the La Liga title.
Diego Simeone's side are top of the division ahead of the final round of fixtures, two points clear of second-placed Real Madrid, while Valladolid are 19th, two points from safety as they battle to stay in the division.
Match preview
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Much of the pre-match talk has been on Atletico, which is understandable as the capital giants look to secure the title, but there is no question that this is also a huge match for a Valladolid side looking to stay in the division.
A record of five wins, 16 draws and 16 defeats from 37 matches has seen the strugglers collect just 31 points, which has left them in 19th position in the table, two points from 17th-placed Huesca, who host Valencia on Saturday evening.
The White and Violets have finished 16th and 13th in their two seasons since returning to this level of football, but it has been a difficult campaign, and they will need to win on Saturday to stand any chance of remaining in the top flight.
Sergio Gonzalez's side will enter this match off the back of a 4-1 defeat at Real Sociedad on May 16, while the relegation-threatened side have not been victorious in the league since the start of March.
Valladolid's home form this season is the second-worst in the league, picking up just 16 points from 18 matches, but Atletico have dropped points in eight of their 18 La Liga games on their travels, and the hosts are certainly capable of causing problems despite their recent struggles.
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Atletico's task is simple – beat Valladolid on Saturday and they will be champions regardless of Real Madrid's result against Villarreal; it did appear that Simeone's side had blown it last weekend as they trailed Osasuna 1-0 entering the latter stages, but Renan Lodi levelled the scores in the 82nd minute before Luis Suarez hit an 88th-minute winner to keep the race in Atletico's hands.
Real Madrid lead this season's head-to-head record over Atletico, meaning that a draw for the Red and Whites here and a win for Los Blancos would mean that Zinedine Zidane's side win the title; there is no margin for error for the visitors, who have won 25 of their 37 league games this term.
Atletico have had their problems this season, but they have been the most consistent side in the league for long spells and are bidding to lift the trophy for the first time since the 2013-14 campaign.
Atletico's home form this season has been excellent, picking up 48 points from 19 matches, which has helped them remain at the summit; their away form has still been strong, but there is no question that Simeone would prefer this match to be at Wanda Metropolitano.
Since losing 2-1 at Athletic Bilbao on April 25, the 10-time Spanish champions have picked up 10 points from four matches, and they will be desperate not to fall at the final hurdle on Saturday evening.
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Team News
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Valladolid will be without the services of Raul Garcia and Kenan Kodro this weekend through injury, while Fabian Orellana is also unlikely to be available for the home side.
Ruben Alcaraz's booking against Real Sociedad last time out means that the midfielder is suspended, while Roberto Jimenez is also banned due to a red card against the Basque club.
Head coach Sergio is likely to recall Jawad El Yamiq following a one-game ban, while Shon Weissman and Roque Mesa may return to the starting XI against Atletico.
As for the visitors, key centre-back Stefan Savic is suspended due to the booking that he picked up against Osasuna, meaning that Jose Gimenez should be back in the side.
Thomas Lemar is expected to miss out with a hamstring problem, but the league leaders are otherwise in excellent shape, meaning that Simeone has plenty of decisions to make.
Luis Suarez is a certainty in the final third of the field, and Angel Correa could just get the nod over Joao Felix, with Saul Niguez, Koke and Marcos Llorente lining up as the midfield three.
Real Valladolid possible starting lineup:
Masip; Janko, El Yamiq, Gonzalez, Olaza; Mesa, Fernandez, Fede; Jota, Weissman, Plano
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Gimenez, Felipe, Hermoso; Trippier, Saul, Koke, Llorente, Carrasco; Correa, Suarez
We say: Real Valladolid 0-1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico know that a win will be enough to win the title, and we are finding it difficult to look as the visitors. Valladolid are also in desperate need of the points, but we are expecting the home side to fall short, which would see them relegated back to the second tier of Spanish football.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.68%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 20.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.48%) and 1-2 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-0 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
