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[monks data]
Monaco
Champions League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 17, 2021 at 8pm UK
Stade Louis II.
Shakhtar Donetsk

Monaco
0 - 1
Shakhtar

Preview: Monaco vs. Shakhtar Donetsk - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Monaco and Shakhtar Donetsk, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aiming to push their Ligue 1 struggles to one side, Monaco prepare to welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to the Stade Louis II for the first leg of their Champions League playoff round tie on Tuesday night.

Niko Kovac's men saw off Sparta Prague 5-1 on aggregate to get this far, while the visitors beat Genk 4-2 over two legs to reach the final hurdle.


Match preview

Monaco manager Niko Kovac pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Another early-season wobble has dented Monaco's Ligue 1 title bid within the first couple of weeks, but with the principality side once again bidding to make a name for themselves in the Champions League, their priorities may lie away from the domestic game at present.

However, Kovac's men have only taken one point from the opening six on offer in Ligue 1 - with Terem Moffi's penalty handing Lorient a 1-0 win at the weekend after Nantes claimed a 1-1 draw in gameweek one - and a fixture with last season's surprise package Lens is sandwiched in between their two legs with Shakhtar.

Les Monegasques already find themselves playing catch up to title favourites Paris Saint-Germain, but they have had no such trouble making a name for themselves in Europe so far, claiming 2-0 and 3-1 victories over Sparta Prague to advance to the playoff round.

A stint in the Europa League group stages will follow should Monaco ultimately suffer defeat to Shakhtar, so Kovac's men do have a safety net of sorts, but a side challenging for the Ligue 1 title right until the final few weeks of last season are only prepared to dine at the top continental table.

Monaco have now gone four games without keeping a clean sheet at home in any competition - maybe a slight concern for Kovac given Shakhtar's penchant for goals - but with several key names set to return from the bench, there ought to be no repeat of Saturday's dismal outing against Lorient.

Sassuolo coach Roberto De Zerbi pictured in January 2021© Reuters

Unsurprisingly, the arrival of former Sassuolo coach Roberto De Zerbi to Shakhtar has brought with it plenty of goals, and the 13-time Ukrainian champions are already firmly on track to regain their stronghold on the domestic crown following Dynamo Kiev's dominance last term.

One minor blip against Oleksandria aside, Shakhtar have marched to successes over Inhulets, Lviv and most recently Metalist 1925 Kharkiv on Friday night, with captain Taras Stepanenko and new arrival Lassina Traore scoring the goals against the latter in a 2-0 success.

A pair of 2-1 victories over Belgian side Genk in the Champions League third qualifying round saw Shakhtar set up a crunch battle with Monaco, and the Ukrainian giants have only lost one of their last eight Champions League matches away from home - a run which includes victory over Real Madrid and draws with Manchester City and Inter Milan.

Shakhtar's successes over Los Blancos in last season's group stage were ultimately in vain as they failed to progress to the knockout rounds, but having held their own against Europe's elite squads away from home in recent times, De Zerbi has every right to feel optimistic about a positive result in Monaco.

Not since the 1979-80 UEFA Cup have Monaco and Shakhtar Donetsk locked horns in a competitive fixture, with the Ukrainian side winning 2-1 at home before suffering a 2-0 defeat to bow out in the first round, although Monaco soon lost out to Lokomotiv Sofia in round two.

Monaco Champions League form:
  • W
  • W

Monaco form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • L

Shakhtar Donetsk Champions League form:
  • W
  • W

Shakhtar Donetsk form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Aleksandr Golovin in action for Monaco in March 2021© Reuters

Monaco continue to field Alexander Nubel in between the sticks while Benjamin Lecomte recovers from a muscle tear, while Benoit Badiashile was not involved against Lorient after sustaining a shoulder problem in his side's second-leg win over Sparta.

The Frenchman's issue should not keep him sidelined for long, but Guillermo Maripan is fully fit again and could earn a place in defence as Strahinja Pavlovic - an unexpected starter on Saturday - makes way.

Aleksandr Golovin, Caio Henrique and Wissam Ben Yedder should also return to the first XI after being benched for the trip to Les Merlus, while Ruben Aguilar and Youssouf Fofana could complete a raft of changes for the hosts.

Shakhtar lost Brazilian attacker Pedrinho to a muscle injury during the first half of their second-leg win over Genk, and the 23-year-old remains a doubt for the trip to Monaco after missing their most recent league encounter.

Veteran striker Junior Moraes continues to recover from a cruciate ligament rupture, but Traore - who already boasts four goals from his first six games with Shakhtar - was in no danger of losing his place up top.

De Zerbi has some big calls to make in midfield after Stepanenko returned to the first XI with a goal at the weekend and Marcos Antonio made the net ripple against Genk, so the two lynchpins could form this week's pairing as Maycon makes way.

Monaco possible starting lineup:
Nubel; Aguilar, Disasi, Maripan, Henrique; Martins, Fofana, Tchouameni, Golovin; Ben Yedder, Volland

Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Dodo, Marlon, Kryvtsov, Matvienko; Stepanenko, Antonio; Tete, Patrick, Solomon; Traore


SM words green background

We say: Monaco 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

Monaco have been able to turn up the heat when it matters in the Champions League, but their dismal league form could lead to a hint of nervousness before the visit of a robust Shakhtar side.

De Zerbi never quite managed to take Sassuolo to the promised land of the Champions League so will be as determined as ever to make the tournament proper with Shakhtar, and we can see the Ukrainian side claiming a hard-fought draw before next week's second leg.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 49.64%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 23.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 0-1 (8.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Monaco vs Shakhtar

Monaco
45.7%
Draw
27.9%
Shakhtar Donetsk
26.4%
276
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1Liverpool440012
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5Monaco431010
6Barcelona43019
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24PSV41215
25Sparta Prague41124
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28Shakhtar41124
29Girona41033
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31Bologna40131
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34Young Boys40040
35Red Star40040
36Slovan Bratislava40040


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