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Arsenal logo
EFL Cup | Last 16
Oct 26, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Leeds logo

Arsenal
2 - 0
Leeds

Chambers (55'), Nketiah (69')
Soares (59')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Roberts (23')

Preview: Arsenal vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Arsenal and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Arsenal will be looking to progress to the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup when they welcome Leeds United to the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night.

The Gunners will enter the contest off the back of a 3-1 win over Aston Villa in the Premier League on Friday, while Leeds played out a 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday.


Match preview

Emile Smith Rowe celebrates scoring for Arsenal in September 2021© Reuters

Arsenal have had their fair share of criticism this season, but Friday's 3-1 win over Villa in the Premier League made it seven games unbeaten in all competitions for the Gunners, who have also been victorious in four of their last five matches at the Emirates Stadium.

Mikel Arteta's side, who are currently ninth in the Premier League table on 14 points, recorded a 3-0 victory over AFC Wimbledon in the last round of the EFL Cup to progress to this stage, with Alexandre Lacazette, Emile Smith Rowe and Eddie Nketiah on the scoresheet.

The Gunners are the most dominant team in the history of the FA Cup, winning the competition on 14 occasions, but they have only lifted the League Cup on two previous occasions.

The North London outfit first tasted success in this competition in 1987 before winning the 1993 trophy courtesy of a 2-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday in the final.

The absence of European football could certainly help Arsenal this season in their pursuit of domestic success, as they will have a lot more rest than their rivals, particularly over the next few weeks.

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa on October 23, 2021© Reuters

Leeds, meanwhile, will enter Tuesday's contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Wolves in the Premier League on Saturday; Hwang Hee-chan's 10th-minute opener appeared to be securing all three points for the visitors at Elland Road, only for Rodrigo to level the scores with a 94th-minute penalty.

The Whites have struggled to get going in the early stages of the 2021-22 Premier League campaign, picking up just seven points from nine matches to sit down in 17th spot in the table.

Marcelo Bielsa's side needed penalties to overcome Fulham in the last round of the League Cup after a goalless draw at Craven Cottage, but they put three unanswered goals past Crewe Alexandra in the second round.

Leeds have only won the League Cup on one previous occasion, lifting the 1968 trophy courtesy of a 1-0 victory over Arsenal, with Terry Cooper scoring the only goal of the contest at Wembley.

The Whites have not overcome Arsenal in any competition since May 2003, though, losing seven of the last nine meetings between the two sides, including a 4-2 defeat when they last travelled to the Emirates Stadium in February.

Arsenal EFL Cup form:
  • W
  • W

Arsenal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W

Leeds United EFL Cup form:
  • W
  • W

Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D



Team News

Kieran Tierney limps off injured during Arsenal's game against Liverpool in the Premier League on April 3, 2021© Reuters

Arsenal will again be without the services of Granit Xhaka due to a long-term knee injury, while Kieran Tierney is unlikely to be involved due to an ankle complaint.

Head coach Arteta will make wholesale changes to the side that started against Villa in the Premier League on Friday, with Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Gabriel Martinelli, Bernd Leno, Mohamed Elneny, Cedric Soares, Nicolas Pepe and Rob Holding among those expected to come into the XI.

Nuno Tavares could retain his spot at left-back despite pressure from Sead Kolasinac, but there could otherwise be 10 alterations from Friday, with Folarin Balogun pushing to be involved at the tip of the attack.

As for Leeds, Robin Koch, Luke Ayling, Junior Firpo, Raphinha and Patrick Bamford will all be missing at the Emirates Stadium through injury.

Whites boss Bielsa will also make changes from his side's Premier League game on Saturday, with Tyler Roberts, Crysencio Summerville, Adam Forshaw and Charlie Cresswell all in line for starts.

A lack of options in a defensive area could see Jamie Shackleton and Stuart Dallas continue in the full-back areas, though, while Bielsa is likely to resist the temptation to bring Kalvin Phillips into the side.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Cedric, Holding, Mari, Nuno; Maitland-Niles, Elneny, Lokonga; Martinelli, Balogun, Pepe

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Shackleton, Cresswell, Cooper, Dallas; Summerville, Klich, Forshaw, Rodrigo, James; Roberts


SM words green background

We say: Arsenal 2-1 Leeds United

It is difficult to know exactly what to expect at the Emirates Stadium, as neither side will be at full strength. Arsenal are on a bit of a roll at the moment, though, and we are backing the Gunners to edge their way into the quarter-finals of the League Cup courtesy of a narrow success.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 46.42%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 29.55% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.7%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 1-2 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Arsenal vs Leeds

Arsenal
78.4%
Draw
13.3%
Leeds United
8.3%
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