Arsenal will be aiming to put the missed opportunities of the first leg behind them when they travel to Athens for their 'home' tie against Benfica in the last 32 of the Europa League.
The two sides played out a 1-1 stalemate in the first leg in Rome, with Bukayo Saka cancelling out Pizzi's penalty in the second half.
Match preview
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Pep Guardiola recently claimed that his former protege Mikel Arteta would turn Arsenal into Premier League title contenders. However, if their performance against Manchester City is anything to go by, it will be a long time before that happens.
The Gunners had their moments but never really looked like troubling the runaway leaders, who opened the scoring inside the first 90 seconds through Raheem Sterling's header and proceeded to shut up shop on Sunday afternoon at the Emirates, as Arsenal lost for the third time in four Premier League matches.
Despite a promising opening to 2021, Arteta's men have now won just one of their last six matches in all competitions, although they could and probably should have taken a first-leg advantage home from Rome last week, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang once again guilty of leaving his shooting boots at home.
Arsenal's perfect record in this season's Europa League ended at the hands of a determined Benfica outfit, but the effervescent Saka at least managed to notch up a vital 'away' goal for his side after the tournament's top scorer Pizzi broke the deadlock from 12 yards, and it will be interesting to see what approach Arteta takes for this match.
The Gunners would normally have a 60,000-strong Emirates crowd roaring them on for their home legs, but this tie will be played in an empty Stadio Georgios Karaiskakis due to coronavirus protocols, and Benfica will make the long journey intent on spoiling the Arsenal party.
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Benfica's recent form is nothing to write home about either, as the Portuguese giants have only won three of their last 11 in all competitions and a Primeira Liga title charge is seemingly out of the question.
Jorge Jesus's men have managed to go their last six games unbeaten, but four of those have ended with the spoils shared - including each of their last three - and they played out a goalless stalemate with relegation-threatened Farense at the weekend after the first leg with Arsenal.
Jesus's switch to a three-man central defence against the Gunners paid dividends at Stadio Olimpico, but it was Arsenal's wastefulness in front of goal more than anything else that has given Benfica a fighting chance of advancing to the last 16 of the Europa League, which they last achieved in the 2018-19 season.
With Thursday's game technically being Benfica's 'away' leg, the importance of chalking up at least one goal against their English counterparts cannot be understated, but a Taca de Portugal victory over Estoril represents their only victory from their last six on the road.
The Portuguese side have only tasted defeat in three of their last 14 on unfamiliar territory, but with the Europa League representing Arsenal's best chance to return to the pinnacle of club football for next season, Benfica's rearguard must produce an inspired performance to keep their own hopes of silverware alive.
Arsenal Europa League form: WWWWWD
Arsenal form (all competitions): DLLWDL
Benfica Europa League form: WDDWDD
Benfica form (all competitions): DWWDDD
Team News
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Arsenal may have to make do without the services of Thomas Partey once again, while Rob Holding will also miss out after sustaining a concussion against Man City.
The Gunners boss has affirmed that he will shuffle the pack for this game as he did at the weekend, with two potential changes in the heart of defence seeing David Luiz and Gabriel Magalhaes return for Holding and Pablo Mari.
Dani Ceballos and Emile Smith Rowe should also return to the first XI on Thursday, but Alexandre Lacazette may have to make do with a spot on the bench once again.
Given the fact that Benfica simply have to score in this match to have a hope of advancing, it would be a surprise to see Jesus stick with the 3-5-2 from the first leg.
The 66-year-old could therefore opt to deploy his more familiar 4-4-2 setup with Darwin Nunez and Luca Waldschmidt leading the line, but Jardel and Andre Almeida remain sidelined.
Julian Weigl was suspended for the draw with Farense but is back here, while Pizzi will almost certainly return to the first XI as well.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Bellerin, Luiz, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Ceballos; Saka, Odegaard, Smith Rowe; Aubameyang
Benfica possible starting lineup:
Leite; Gilberto, Vertonghen, Otamendi, Grimaldo; Silva, Weigl, Pizzi, Everton; Nunez, Waldschmidt
We say: Arsenal 1-0 Benfica
Arteta has undeniably improved Arsenal's defensive stability since taking over, and it was only a lapse of concentration from Emile Smith Rowe that prevented them from coming up trumps in the first leg. The Gunners should have scored more than the one goal in Rome, and they were able to take some positives from their defeat to City, so we expect Arteta's side to grind out a narrow win and advance to the last 16 at the expense of an underwhelming Benfica.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 45.3%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 29.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.15%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Benfica win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
