A potentially-crucial relegation battle takes place in the Bundesliga on Tuesday evening, with Arminia Bielefeld hosting VfL Bochum at the Schuco-Arena.
The hosts have only won once all season and are struggling in the relegation zone as a result, whilst the newly-promoted visitors have recently pulled clear of the drop zone following an impressive run of five wins in their last eight matches.
Match preview
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Despite being less than halfway through the Bundesliga campaign so far, Tuesday's clash is already a huge fixture for hosts Bielefeld.
With just one win, and 10 points, to show from their opening 15 fixtures to this point, Frank Kramer's side already find themselves in 17th place, six points off Augsburg in the relegation playoff spot and seven away from Stuttgart in complete safety.
An away trip to RB Leipzig follows on Saturday in the final game before the winter break, so three points against a newly-promoted side on Tuesday becomes all the more desperate for Die Arminen.
Scoring goals remains the primary problem for Kramer to find a solution to, with the disappointing return of 10 so far being the worst record across the division, which is even three worse than bottom-placed Greuther Furth.
The 26 netted from 34 matches last season was somehow enough to keep Bielefeld their place in the top flight, but this time around luck does not seem to be in their favour.
There was no lack of fortune about their result last time out though, as Bielefeld fell 2-0 to Hertha Berlin in the capital on Saturday, with a poor display meaning the scoreline in fact flattered them and a complete lack of threat in front of goal meaning the defeat was never in any doubt.
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As for the visitors, an incredible run of form since the October international break has seen Bochum rise from the relegation places to ninth as things stand at the time of writing.
Following their unexpected promotion to the top flight last season, Die Unabsteigbaren looked set for an immediate return to the 2.Bundesliga just two months ago, as four points from the opening 21 on offer saw them occupy the relegation places with fellow promoted side Greuther.
However, whilst their counterparts have failed to adapt to the top flight, Thomas Reis' men have burst into life, picking up 16 points from the last 24 available.
The most recent of these was a hard-fought point against title-challengers Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, where Reis's side dug deep and rode their luck at times to come out with a 1-1 draw.
Sebastian Polter had given Bochum the lead just before half time, and were it not for Julian Brandt's equaliser five minutes from the end, it would have been a memorable three points recorded against the Black and Yellow giants.
A similar performance on Tuesday evening would surely see Bochum pick up at least a point, which would ensure the gap between themselves and the relegation places is not narrowed ahead of the winter break that follows Saturday's home fixture with Union Berlin.
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Team News
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The hosts have four potential absentees to assess ahead of Tuesday's visit of Bochum, with Sebastian Vasiliadis potentially returning after missing the last two due to COVID-19, whilst Lennart Czyborra, Jacob Laursen and Edimilson Fernandes are expected to miss out until the new year.
Andres Andrade should replace Laursen at left full-back, whilst Robin Hack could come in for Fabian Kunze, which would see Alessandro Schopf return to a deeper role.
As for the visitors, a small outbreak of COVID-19 is expected to keep Eduard Lowen, Tom Weilandt and Takuma Asano on the sidelines for at least another match.
Saulo Decarli and Danny Blum are likely to remain unavailable as well, whilst Simon Zoller remains unavailable for the rest of the season.
Reis will assess the energy of his players following their hard-fought display against Dortmund on Saturday, but should their fitness levels remain high, the manager could name an unchanged lineup following the impressive recent form.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; Brunner, Pieper, Nilsson, Andrade; Schopf, Prietl; Wimmer, Hack, Okugawa; Klos
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Stafylidis, Masovic, Leitsch, Soares; Pantovic, Losilla, Rexhbecaj; Holtmann, Polter, Antwi-Adjei
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 1-1 VfL Bochum
With the high level of form on display from the visitors of late, it is difficult to see them losing on Tuesday evening, despite being similarly matched with their hosts.
We are predicting Bielefeld to struggle once more, and fail to pick up three points yet again against their in-form opponents, with a draw a likely result.
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 1-0 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
