Iceland will be looking to bring an end to their losing run when they travel to the Republican Stadium for a World Cup 2022 qualifying fixture against Armenia on Sunday.
Arnar Vidarsson's first game in charge ended in a 3-0 loss to Germany in Iceland's opening Group J match, while Armenia kept their good form going with a 1-0 win in Liechtenstein.
Match preview
© Reuters
Defeat for Iceland in Duisburg was their sixth in a row and their eighth in nine matches since September 2020.
However, it must be factored in that 'Our Boys' have been a victim of their own success, having been placed among the top tier of countries for the UEFA Nations League.
Those losses have come against England, Belgium and Germany, as well as Denmark and Hungary, but Sunday's contest is one Iceland will be favourites to win.
An improvement will be needed on the back of the loss to Germany, though, as Vidarsson's men conceded to Leon Goretzka and Kai Havertz strikes inside the first seven minutes.
Ilkay Gundogan completed the rout shortly before the hour mark, making it seven goals conceded and none scored for Iceland in their last two games.
© Reuters
Armenia had a better time of things in their opening World Cup qualifier, albeit against a side far lower down than heavyweights Germany in the FIFA rankings.
An own goal from Noah Frommelt proved the difference in their meeting with Liechtenstein - Armenia's third win in a row and a sixth match without defeat.
Joaquin Caparros's side have kept clean sheets in exactly half of those six games, but Iceland will be a step up in quality compared to Estonia, Liechtenstein and North Macedonia.
Armenia have not beaten Iceland in the three previous meetings between the nations and have failed to even score, the most recent encounter ending in a 2-0 reverse 15 years ago.
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Alexander Karapetyan replaced Artak Grigoryan at half time in Armenia's win over Liechtenstein and could be in contention to return to the XI on Sunday.
Striker Norberto Briasco has failed to score in six internationals now, so Artur Miranyan will be hoping to come into Caparros's thinking for this game.
Star player Henrikh Mkhitaryan is not part of the squad for March's qualifiers due to an injury sustained for Roma, putting extra pressure on the shoulders of Tigran Barseghyan.
The visitors are also without arguably their key creative talent, as Gylfi Sigurdsson has been given permission to sit out the international break with his wife due to give birth.
Emil Hallfredsson and Alfred Finnbogason are also nursing injuries for Iceland, while Runar Mar Sigurjonsson left the field early in the loss to Germany.
Kolbeinn Sigthorsson and Arnor Sigurdsson are among those pushing for recalls up top, where Jon Dadi Bodvarsson got the nod last time out.
Armenia possible starting lineup:
Yurchenko; Hambardzumyan, Haroyan, Calisir, Hovhannisyan; Barseghyan, Udo, Grigoryan, Bayramyan; Adamyan, Briasco
Iceland possible starting lineup:
Halldorsson; Sampsted, Arnason, Ingason, Magnusson; Traustason, Palsson; Gunnarsson; Gudmundsson, Bjarnason; Bodvarsson
We say: Armenia 0-1 Iceland
Iceland have lost six games in a row and Armenia are unbeaten in the same number of matches, but that does not quite tell the whole story.
The visitors have faced some strong opposition over the past year and this represents a chance to get back to winning ways, which we are tipping them to do in Yerevan.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 46.39%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Armenia would win this match.
