It is all to play for heading into the second leg of the Europa League third qualifying round clash between Alashkert FC and Kairat.
Neither side could find a way through in a goalless opening 90 minutes to the tie, but something has to give at Stadion Nairi on Thursday evening.
Match preview
Kairat managed double the number of attempts on target than their opponents in last week's reverse fixture in Kazakhstan, though the tie ultimately remains poised at 0-0.
The Kazakhstani champions followed up that stalemate with a 3-0 win over Zhetysu in the domestic cup on Sunday, ending a run of four games without a win in all competitions.
That includes a 5-0 thumping at the hands of Red Star Belgrade in last month's Champions League qualifying second-leg tie, having taken a 2-1 lead into that contest.
The Europa League is therefore the best Kairat can hope for in 2021-22, with either Neftchi Baku or HJK Helsinki awaiting in the playoffs should they overcome Alashkert.
Armenian champions Alashkert will also fancy their chances of progressing, though, as they also look to recover from the disappointment of exiting the Champions League.
The Yellows were beaten 4-1 on aggregate by Sheriff Tiraspol in the preliminary rounds and now have a second shot at qualifying for some sort of European football.
Incidentally, the losers of this tie will be transferred to the Europa Conference League playoff rounds, so there is a safety net in place.
Alashkert will consider that a huge disappointment, but they are hardly in the best of form, losing three and drawing one of their last four games.
Unlike Kairat, Aleksandr Grigoryan's side have not started their domestic campaign, so they have had a full week's rest between games.
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
Team News
Alashkert have had seven days to prepare for this match, but it remains to be seen whether Grigoryan will make any changes to his starting lineup on Thursday.
Nikita Tankov, Aghvan Papikyan and Vincent Bezecourt were introduced from the bench in the first leg and are all pushing for recalls here.
As for Kairat, they are expected to be without the quartet of Jacek Goralski, Nebojsa Kosovic, Gafurzhan Suyumbaev and Joao Paulo.
Goalkeeper Stas Pokatilov has recovered from coronavirus in time for the second leg, but the availability of Macky Bagnack - who has been self-isolating - is not clear.
Alashkert FC possible starting lineup:
Cancerevic; Boljevic, Cameta, Voskanyan, Kadio; Yedigaryan, Hovsepyan, Grigoryan; Mihajlovic, Glisic, Khurtsidze
Kairat possible starting lineup:
Pokatilov; Vorogovskiy, Alip, Dugalic, Hovhannisyan; Polyakov, Abiken, Buranchiev; Alykulov, Love, Shushenachev
We say: Alashkert FC 0-1 Kairat (Kairat win 1-0 on aggregate)
Another tight contest can be expected in this second leg, which we expect to be decided by the single goal.
Kairat have defeated Red Star Belgrade this season - albeit before being thumped in the second leg - and should they replicate that performance it may be them who edge though.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alashkert FC win with a probability of 41.86%. A win for Kairat had a probability of 32.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alashkert FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.87%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Kairat win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%).
