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AFC Wimbledon
League One | Gameweek 17
Feb 1, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
The Cherry Red Records Stadium
Cheltenham Town

AFC Wimbledon
2 - 2
Cheltenham

Assal (8'), Cosgrove (80')
Brown (45+2'), Marsh (61'), Cosgrove (90+6')
FT(HT: 1-2)
May (31', 34' pen.)
Sercombe (16'), Raglan (26'), Hutchinson (66')

Preview: AFC Wimbledon vs. Cheltenham Town - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between AFC Wimbledon and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two teams struggling for wins in League One will lock horns at Plough Lane on Tuesday night, as AFC Wimbledon host Cheltenham Town.

Wimbledon will enter the contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Shrewsbury Town on Saturday, while Cheltenham held high-flying Wigan Athletic to a goalless draw on the same afternoon.


Match preview

AFC Wimbledon manager Mark Robinson after the match on January 11, 2022© Reuters

Wimbledon's winless run in League One stretched to eight matches on Saturday afternoon, as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Shrewsbury on home soil, with Dominic Udoh cancelling out an early effort from Ayoub Assal.

Not since December 7 have the Dons been victorious in the league - a 2-0 success at Accrington Stanley - but they have shared the points in four of their last five, which has left them in 20th spot in the table.

Mark Robinson's side are only one point clear of 21st-placed Morecambe but are also just four points behind 16th-placed Shrewsbury, which is an indication of how quickly things can change in the third tier.

Wimbledon, who finished 19th in League One last season, have struggled in front of their own supporters this term, picking up just 14 points from 13 matches, which is the third-worst home record in the division.

Three of the team's next four League One matches are at Plough Lane, which will be a slight concern, but Cheltenham have not travelled particularly well this term, collecting just 11 points from 13 away fixtures.

Cheltenham Town's manager Michael Duff and Sean Long after the match in February 2021© Reuters

The visitors, as mentioned, will enter the contest off the back of a goalless draw with Wigan, who were knocked off top spot after failing to triumph on Saturday afternoon.

Cheltenham, like Wimbledon, have drawn four of their last five matches in League One, with their last success in the third tier of English football coming away to Gillingham towards the end of November.

Michael Duff's side have won seven, drawn 11 and lost 10 of their 28 league matches this season to collect 32 points, which has left them in 17th position in the table.

The Robins are only four points clear of the relegation zone and would certainly be pulled into trouble if they were to lose to Wimbledon on Tuesday evening; Doncaster Rovers and Gillingham are being cut adrift at the bottom of the division, but there are still a number of teams looking nervously over their shoulder.

AFC Wimbledon League One form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D

Cheltenham Town League One form:
  • L
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D



Team News

AFC Wimbledon team huddle before the match on January 11, 2022© Reuters

Wimbledon did not pick up any fresh injury problems during their 1-1 draw with Shrewsbury on Saturday, but it would not be a surprise to see head coach Robinson freshen his XI.

Anthony Hartigan could come into the side in place of Ethan Chislett, while Aaron Cosgrave is pushing for involvement in the final third of the field.

New signing Lee Brown made his first start against Shrewsbury and is expected to retain his spot in the first XI for Tuesday's contest in London.

As for Cheltenham, Ben Williams will be missing through suspension, having been sent off against Wigan last time out, which will open the door for Lewis Freestone to come into the starting side.

The visitors are also expected to be without the services of Dan Nlundulu following his first-half withdrawal at the weekend, so Kion Etete could join Alfie May in the final third of the field.

The side could otherwise be unchanged from the one that featured against Wigan, although Elliott Bonds might come in for Conor Thomas in the middle of the park.

AFC Wimbledon possible starting lineup:
Tzanev; Osew, Heneghan, Nightingale, Brown; McCormick, Marsh; Rudoni, Hartigan, Assal; Ablade

Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Evans; Raglan, Pollock, Boyle; Blair, Sercombe, Bonds, Wright, Freestone; May, Etete


SM words green background

We say: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Cheltenham Town

These two sides have drawn plenty of matches in recent weeks, and we were close to backing another stalemate on Tuesday night. Wimbledon are due a victory, though, and we believe that the home side will edge a tight contest to secure a vital three points here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 44.76%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: AFC Wimbledon vs Cheltenham

AFC Wimbledon
61.5%
Draw
35.9%
Cheltenham Town
2.6%
39
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