The two most successful sides in Super League history square off in the 25th Grand Final on Saturday as St Helens take on Leeds Rhinos at Old Trafford.
The history-hunting Saints go into the match as favourites to add an unprecedented fourth successive Super League crown to their bulging trophy cabinet, but Leeds have made a habit of upsetting the odds this season and are looking to secure perhaps the most remarkable triumph in Super League history.
Match preview
© Reuters
The storyline-writers have not had to work too hard for this game, with Saturday's Super League showdown having all of the makings of a classic final, complete with subplots galore.
The all-conquering, record-chasing favourites St Helens are looking to become the first team to win four Super League Grand Finals on the bounce, and also the first to reach 10 Super League crowns overall, including one before the Grand Final concept came into play. Super League immortality awaits them if they complete the job this weekend.
Standing in their way are the against-all-odds underdogs Leeds, who have dragged themselves from second-bottom of the Super League table in April to being 80 minutes away from a first title since 2017. Victory for them on Saturday would complete arguably the greatest turnaround in the competition's history, as well as seeing them become the first team to win nine Grand Finals; they are currently tied with Saints on eight.
The contrasts continue to the sidelines too, with departing St Helens head coach Kristian Woolf looking to mark his final game in charge by becoming the first coach to win three successive Super League titles, before heading off to take charge of Tonga at the Rugby League World Cup later this year.
Leeds head coach Rohan Smith, meanwhile, has catapulted himself into the Super League psyche since taking over as an unknown on these shores, to the extent that even Rhinos captain Kruise Leeming admitted that he did not know who the incoming coach was.
People certainly know now, with Smith leading Leeds from relegation contenders in April - just a point clear of basement club Toulouse Olympique - to title contenders in September, and the Rhinos arrive at Old Trafford with nine wins from their last 10 outings.
Leeds go into the game as the form team, then, with St Helens stuttering towards the end of the regular season as their focus shifted towards the playoffs, but it is still the defending three-peat champions who most expect to prevail.
© Reuters
The tag of rank underdogs is not one Leeds have held too often down the years, of course, and victory this weekend would see them join their opponents as the most successful club in Super League history with nine titles.
The Rhinos have only lost two of their previous 10 trips to the showpiece event, whereas Saints have lost five of their 13 - incredibly all in a row - ahead of their record-extending 14th Grand Final outing, only failing to make the last game of the season 11 times from its 25-year history.
Woolf's men won the League Leaders' Shield for the first time since 2019 this season, finishing four points clear of second-placed Wigan Warriors with 21 wins to their name from their 27 outings.
Even their end-of-season slump did not prevent them from posting comfortably the best defensive record in the division, and they limited Salford Red Devils' dangerous attack on their way to a 19-12 victory in the semi-finals last weekend.
On the other hand, Leeds have made a habit of producing the unexpected this season, securing their place in the playoffs on the final day of the regular campaign before upsetting the odds against Catalans Dragons and then Wigan Warriors in the playoffs so far, all while coping with a lengthy injury list to some key players.
The victory over Wigan at the DW Stadium saw the Warriors beaten at home for the first time all season as Leeds limited the league's best attack to only one try in a 20-8 triumph, and a repeat of that defensive showing this weekend could be the foundation for Grand Final glory.
As the only other team to have won three Super League titles in a row - incidentally beating St Helens in each of those finals - Leeds will be particularly determined to stop the Merseysiders from wrestling that slice of history from their grasp.
Such has been their form and refusal to go with the script that it would be foolish to rule out the prospect of them ending St Helens' dominance, but Woolf's side have so much winning experience on the biggest stage that they too have every reason to be confident of yet more success.
St Helens form:
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
Leeds Rhinos form:
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
St Helens have been boosted by the news that key man Morgan Knowles has had his two-game suspension for twisting the arm of his opponent in a tackle during the semi-final against Salford Red Devils overturned, meaning that he is available for the Grand Final.
Dan Norman, Will Hopoate and Josh Simm are all back in the squad too, although star man Alex Walmsley remains sidelined with a broken foot which has also ruled him out of England's Rugby League World Cup campaign.
Saints boast a mix of prodigious youth and unparalleled experience, from Jack Welsby - fresh from being named the Super League Young Player of the Year for the second time in a row this week - to captain James Roby, who is looking to become the first player ever to win the Harry Sunderland trophy - awarded to the Grand Final man of the match - three times, as well as the oldest player to win it.
Roby is already set to equal Leeds legend Jamie Peacock's record of 11 Grand Final appearances, although defeat would also see him set an unwanted record of six defeats on the biggest stage.
Incredibly, the 36-year-old hooker is one of four players in the St Helens squad that also played the last time these two sides faced off in the Grand Final 11 years ago, with Tommy Makinson, Jonny Lomax and Louie McCarthy-Scarsbrook joining their skipper in looking to avenge that 2011 defeat.
Leeds have made it all the way to the final without some of their biggest names in recent weeks, but they have been boosted at the best possible time in the buildup to this match with the returns of their top points-scorer Rhyse Martin and top try-scorer Ash Handley.
The Rhinos will be without the influential Aidan Sezer, though, as he failed a head injury assessment following a high tackle during last week's semi-final win over Wigan.
Harry Newman and David Fusitu'a also remain sidelined, while Morgan Gannon has again missed out on a place in the squad.
Head To Head
The Saints have dominated this fixture in recent times, with Leeds failing to win any of the last 11 meetings stretching back to 2018.
Indeed, since Leeds' last victory in this fixture the Saints have won three Grand Finals, two of which came under Woolf, who also led his side to the double over Saturday's opponents in the regular season.
One of those came in the midst of Leeds' revival too, running out 42-12 winners in June to back up a 26-0 whitewash at Headingley earlier in the campaign, leaving the overall Super League head-to-head record at 43 Saints wins compared to 32 for Leeds.
However, when it really matters it is the Rhinos who have dominated, winning every single one of the four previous Grand Finals between the two sides.
That includes a run of three in a row between 2007 and 2009, setting the record which St Helens are now trying to eclipse, before adding a fourth triumph with a 32-16 win in 2011, the Rhinos having again finished fifth in the table on that occasion.
We say: St Helens to win by two
This match has it all. Silverware on the line, contrasting narratives, records to be broken and stolen off the opposition - it is hard to imagine how it could be set up any better.
Leeds have made a mockery of most predictions so far in these playoffs, and such is their form and confidence right now that one more win would no longer be a major surprise.
This group of St Helens players have seen and achieved it all before, though, and at the risk of being proved wrong by Leeds yet again, we are backing the champions to write their name into Super League folklore with a fourth successive title - but only just, and it might go right down to the wire.
No Data Analysis info
Barney Corkhill
